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Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election · Chronopin

ElectionsPosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 2:59 pm·@OddsDesk To timeline

Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

Starts 11/07/2028

The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC

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Geopolitics
2028 Election
Kalshi
Polymarket
Prediction Market

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Federal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.^[1]

Start: Nov 7, 202875% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

Election Day for the 2028 U.S. presidential race is November 7, 2028, and Kalshi's winner market was still wide open on 20 September 2026: J.D. Vance led at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 12% and Marco Rubio at 9.6%. The winner takes office on January 20, 2029.

Kalshi runs a market on the question "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?", filed under 2028 and subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC^[1]
Its listed leaders are J.D. Vance (Republican) at 22% (Yes 23c, No 78c), Jon Ossoff (Democratic) at 12% (Yes 12c, No 89c) and Marco Rubio (Republican) at 9.8%, up 0.2 (Yes 9.7c, No 90.4c), with "More markets" beyond the three shown^[1]
A separate Polymarket market on the Democratic nomination for the same election, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028", lists 51+ possible outcomes and an end date of Nov 7, 2028, though its chart and FAQ give a resolution date of Nov 6, 2028^[2]
That market opened on Jul 11, 2025 at 2:15 PM ET and has taken $1,282,710,198 in total trading volume - "$1.3 billion in total trading volume since the market launched"^[2]
On the nomination side the front-runners are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18.1%, Jon Ossoff at 16.6%, Gavin Newsom at 15.6% and Kamala Harris at 8.4%, so Ossoff is priced near the top for the nomination while Kalshi has him second at 12% to win the presidency itself^[1][2]
Polymarket's own market context, updated Sep 20, 2026, says the nomination "remains tightly contested because no candidate has declared and the party is still assessing its direction after the 2024 general election loss", with pricing shaped by positioning ahead of the November 2026 midterms^[2]
Recent moves on that market: Ocasio-Cortez rose to 19% (+4%) on Sep 18, 2026 after rejoining the Democratic Socialists of America, and Harris rose to 10% (+2%) on Sep 19, 2026 as she expanded her "107 Days" book tour^[2]
The Polymarket rules resolve Yes only if the named individual "wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president", judged by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, and "any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution"; trading on polymarket.com is blocked in the United States^[2]

0

References 272% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
kalshi.com/markets/kxpresperson/2028-us-presidential-election-winner/kxpresperson-28
kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Nov 7, 2028 ✓· 50% of score
Federal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.
[2]70%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Polymarket
polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 50% of score
The companion nomination market has Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18%, Jon Ossoff 17% and Gavin Newsom 15% for the Democratic side, and its own end date is November 7, 2028.^[1]

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1Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

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