The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
No date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's[2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.
This market only needs Ukraine’s signature on a treaty, armistice or roadmap by December 31, 2026 and still trades at 11%, close to the ceasefire ladder.[1]
Kalshi prices even a first in-person meeting of the two presidents at 7% before 2027, which is the step a negotiated ceasefire would most likely go through.
RAND's Samuel Charap argues a ceasefire could "generate insidious new risks" rather than settle the war, which is the ten-day-durability test the Polymarket[1][2] contract turns on.
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Kyiv plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia this spring. A former US military meteorologist has taken to Twitter to provide valuable predictions as to when ground conditions will be right.
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
