The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
The market is settled on the ranking as it stands on December 31, 2026 and expires that day at 15:00 UTC, so the date is fixed by the market’s own terms.
The September event on the same Kalshi[1][3] series shows the starting position — Claude at 98% — so the year-end 71.5% is a measure of release risk, not of a contested lead today.
The capability-threshold market on the same exchange is much closer (Claude 19%, ChatGPT 15%), which is the counterweight to the year-end ranking.[1]
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.