References 375% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 75%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount/spacex-launches/kxspacexcount-26bkalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 36% of score
An annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.
- [2]80%Polymarket: How many SpaceX launches in 2026?polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 36% of score
Polymarket’s bucketed version of the same tally puts 140–159 at 75.9%, which matches Kalshi’s[1] 68% above 140 and 36% above 145 almost exactly.
- [3]70%SpaceX Daily Ep 25: Record Falcon cadence and a fresh rideshare deploymentpodcasts.apple.com· Published Jul 7, 2026· 27% of score
The July 7, 2026 episode notes SpaceX had already broken its half-year launch records, the cadence that puts the annual tally just above 140.[1]
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