References 260% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 60%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%polymarket.com/event/next-james-bond-actor-398polymarket.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 50% of score
No casting date has been announced. Polymarket's market runs to 31 December 2026 and prices a one-in-five chance that no Bond is named by then, so the end of 2026 is a market-implied estimate rather than a scheduled event.
- [2]70%Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond (before 2030) - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 50% of score
The second exchange on the same casting question, over a longer window; its top two names match Polymarket's[1], which is why both are cited.
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