Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

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Ethereum pour 2026 est fixé à la fin de l
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Edited10/25/2026 at 11:58 pmby @OddsDesk
Summary
rewritten 221 added, 81 removed
~~The Kalshi~~ Kalshi’s KXETHMAXY-27JAN01 ladder is a set of “touch” contracts on Ether’s highest price of 2026; each rung pays if the price exceeds its strike at any point before the year ends, and the event resolves on ~~Ethereum’s 2026 high~~ 1 January 2027. Settlement uses the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index, a trimmed mean that discards the top and ~~expires at 05:00 UTC~~ bottom 20% of minute-by-minute prints, up to midnight Eastern on 1 January ~~1, 2027, on~~ 2027. On 26 August 2026 Ether traded near $2,495, after a 2026 high of about ~~2.5M contracts~~ $3,400 in mid-January. Kalshi ~~ladder: above~~then priced $3,500 at ~~30%, above $3,750 25%, above $4,000 22%, above $4,250 19%, above $4,500 11%, above~~ roughly 28%, $4,000 at 21%, $5,000 (close to the August 2025 record) at 11% and $6,000 at 6%. The pin’s 20 September snapshot shows the ladder drifting slightly: $3,500 at 30%, $4,000 at 22%, $5,000 at 9% and ~~above~~ $6,000 ~~3% Polymarket’s "what~~ at 3%, with about 2.5 million contracts traded. Open interest on the $3,500 rung was 121,399 contracts in late August, with 1,385 traded in a day, so the market is liquid enough that strike odds are meaningful. Polymarket runs a parallel event, “What price will Ethereum hit in ~~2026" book prices a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%, $3,500 at 32% and $4,000 at 16.5%,~~ 2026?”, opened 24 November 2025 and ending 31 December 2026, with about $18.6 million cumulative volume. It resolves on Binance’s ETH/USDT chart rather than the CF index, so the two ~~exchanges are within~~ books can settle differently on a ~~couple of points at~~ marginal print. When last opened, the ~~$3,500 and $4,000 strikes Ether traded near $2,600 on September 20, 2026; both books have already settled the $2,000 and $2,500 rungs as touched~~Polymarket page showed touch odds of about 12% for $3,500, 8% for $4,000, 3.4% for $5,000 and 2% for $6,000, a little lower than Kalshi’s late-August levels.
- Ethereum Price Prediction 2026: How High Will ETH Get? The AI Model Verdict (OddsShopper)oddsshopper.com80% CONFIDENCE

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References 378% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
kalshi.com/markets/kxethmaxy/how-high-will-ethereum-get-this-year/kxethmaxy-27jan01
kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 34% of score
A year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.
[2]80%
Polymarket: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 34% of score
Polymarket runs the same year-high question with its own liquidity ($14.7M) and prices $3,500 at 32% against Kalshi’s^[1] 30%, a close independent cross-check.
[3]80%
Ethereum Price Prediction 2026: How High Will ETH Get? The AI Model Verdict (OddsShopper)
oddsshopper.com· Published Aug 26, 2026· 31% of score
Describes the Kalshi^[1] KXETHMAXY contract mechanics (CF index, touch rule), 26 Aug 2026 strike odds and open interest.

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Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

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