The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
The Heisman[2] ceremony is fixed to the second Saturday of December - 13 December for the 91st award in 2025, so 12 December 2026 for the 92nd - and Kalshi's market expires on 1 January 2027, after it.
The Heisman Trust's own page on balloting and the ceremony's place in the December calendar.
Seth Woolcock and Scott Bogman work through the same market on 19 August 2026 - the transcript calls it "the twenty twenty six Heisman[2] Trophy Market" and names CJ Carr and Darian Mensah as the favourites - which independently corroborates the shape of the board.
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