The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Yahoo[3] Sports and Athlon both give Monday 26 October 2026 for the ceremony, and Polymarket's[2] Ballon d'Or market ends 26 October, so the date is firm even though organisers had not formally confirmed the venue.
The second exchange on the same question, with $37m traded; its prices match Kalshi's[1] within a point and its market ends on the ceremony date.
Yahoo Sports reports the 26 October date and the move from Paris to London for the award's 70th anniversary, with the Palladium as the reported venue.
A 19 September 2026 episode on the Kane-versus-Yamal argument that the market is pricing; the feed carries no transcript, so this cites the episode's own chapter summary.[1]
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