References 180% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

• [1]80%
  Polymarket: Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?

  polymarket.com· Posted Oct 15, 2026· Starts Nov 30, 2026 ✓· 100% of score

  Google has announced nothing. On Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next general-purpose Gemini Flash model (version 3.9 or higher), the probability rises from 10.5% by October 15 and 33% by October 31 to 82.5% by November 30, 2026, putting 49.5 percentage points in November. The pin takes November 30, 2026, the resolution date of the majority probability bracket.

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