References 365% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-the-midtermspolymarket.com· Posted Nov 2, 2026· Starts Nov 3, 2026 ✓· Ends Nov 4, 2026 ✓· 33% of score
Estimated: the market window closes at 11:59 PM ET on November 3, 2026 (04:59 UTC on November 4); the pin is dated to election day, the start of the observation window's last day, and a strike could end the ceasefire earlier.
- [2]85%Polymarket: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? (earlier ladder, pin 1952)polymarket.com· Added Nov 2, 2026· 33% of score
The earlier market on the same ceasefire, linked as the thread's parent.[1]
- [3]95%Polymarket API: US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?gamma-api.polymarket.com· Published Nov 2, 2026· 33% of score
Opened 2 November 2026: Yes 95.5%, US$1,878,972 traded, resolution rules defining a qualifying strike.[1]
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