Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?
Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan
ESTIMATED63% CONFIDENCENothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.
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