The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
No date has been set. Kalshi dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.
A chancellor leaving mid-term is the usual route to an early Bundestag election, so this market is the check on the 2029 date.[1]
France 24 reports German voters could "for the first time since World War II give an outright majority to a far-right party" in a state election, which is the run of form behind the AfD at 85% in the federal market.[1]
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.
Junta Electoral Central