- Start
- Nov 30, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000
- Kalshi's ladder on when Bitcoin will next cross $100,000 is event KXBTCMAX100-26 (series KXBTCMAX100), listed under BTC/Crypto with $12,569,082 volume[1]
- The dated strikes price the move at 10% before November 2026, 23% before December 2026 (up 7) and 26% before January 2027 (up 6), so the whole of 2026 is given roughly a one-in-four chance and the jump from November to December is the single largest step in the book[1]
- The page's own numbers disagree slightly: the strike list and headline both show 26% for "Before January 2027" while the trade panel reads "Odds 27% chance" alongside YES 26¢ / NO 75¢[1]
- Kalshi's separate 2026 high-water market, "How high will Bitcoin get this year?" (series KXBTCMAXY, event KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31, $4,724,025 volume), puts "Above $99,999.99" at 28% (order ticket: "Odds 29% chance"), above $109,999.99 at 14% and above $119,999.99 at 8%[2]
- The two books therefore price the same six-figure milestone a little apart - 26% to cross $100k before January 2027[1] against 28% to trade above $99,999.99 by year end[2] - partly because their measurement windows start on different days[1][2]
- Both markets resolve on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index using a trimmed mean: every minute's BRTI value from market issuance to the stated time is taken, the top 20% and bottom 20% discarded and the remaining 60% averaged, with the outcome verified from CF Benchmarks[1][2]
- Either market expires early the moment the index crosses its threshold; otherwise the $100k market closes by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST (max payout date Dec 31, 2026) and the year-high market by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59pm EST, and resolves No if no data is available[1][2]
- The $100k market opened Feb 17, 2026 at 4:00pm EST and measures from 02/17/2026 04:00 PM; the year-high market opened Jan 2, 2026 at 6:00pm EST and measures from 01/02/2026 06:00 PM[1][2]
- Sentiment earlier in the year ran the other way: an August 20, 2026 Markets Outlook episode had 10x Research founder Markus Thielen arguing the cycle low was already behind us and setting out the Fed tailwinds, institutional flows and "key levels that could unlock a new all-time high", with Bitcoin then "surging past $72K"[3]
- That episode is itself inconsistent about the price and the people: the title says Bitcoin "breaks $70K" while the description says past $72K, the interview "was recorded on August 19th before bitcoin's most recent rally", and the description credits host Jennifer Sanasie where the page's Hosts & Guests panel lists Noelle Acheson[3]
References 367% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcmax100/when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k/kxbtcmax100-26kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Nov 30, 2026 ✓· 35% of score
This is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.
- [2]80%Kalshi: How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 35% of score
The year-high market prices "above $99,999.99 in 2026" at 28%, within a couple of points of this ladder’s 26%, so the two books agree on the odds of the level being reached.[1]
- [3]70%Markets Outlook: Bitcoin Breaks $70K — When Will It Hit a New All-Time High?podcasts.apple.com· Published Aug 20, 2026· 31% of score
CoinDesk’s August 20, 2026 Markets Outlook has 10x Research’s Markus Thielen turning bullish as Bitcoin passed $72K, the recovery this $100,000 ladder is priced off.[1]
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