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Falcon 9 launches Starlink Group 15-25
推定10 日遅れ確度 60%17 日後Spaceflight Now's[2] schedule (checked 2026-09-23): "Falcon 9 Starlink 15-25 - 'TBD' launch time on October 10 | SLC-4E, Vandenberg"; rocketlaunch.org gives October 10, 4:00 PM UTC. No firm time yet.A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.68Falcon 9 launches Starlink Group 15-27
A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.68Falcon 9、USSF-385を打ち上げ
予定確度 77%3 日後Spaceflight Now[3]（2026-09-23確認）：9月26日、ヴァンデンバーグのSLC-4Eから「打ち上げウィンドウは午前4時56分PDT（東部夏時間午前7時56分／1156 UTC）に開く」。打ち上げは延期される場合がある。アメリカ宇宙軍の機密ミッション。ロケット各段の落下区域が過去のStarlink Group 15の打ち上げと完全に一致することから、SpaceXのStarshield衛星バスをベースとした機密の低軌道衛星群とみられる。米カリフォルニア州ヴァンデンバーグ宇宙軍基地のスペース・ローンチ・コンプレックス4E（SLC-4E）から地球低軌道へ打ち上げられる。第1段はドローン船「Of Course I Still Love You」への着陸を予定している。0.65Arianespace Launches Ariane 5 on Its Final Flight, VA261
確定確度 85%3.2 年前Spaceflight Now[3] and ESA both confirm Ariane 5 flight VA261, the rocket's final launch, lifted off on 5 July 2023.Arianespace flew Europe's Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket for the last time from the Guiana Space Centre, retiring the launcher after 27 years and 117 missions. The final flight, VA261, carried Germany's Heinrich Hertz communications satellite and France's Syracuse 4B military satellite to orbit.0.63Amazon Leo Consumer Satellite Internet Launch
推定6 か月遅れ確度 74%99 日後Amazon says consumer service comes 'later this year'; one report puts consumer beta in five countries in late 2026 or early 2027. The last day of 2026 is used.[1]Amazon says it has launched enough Leo satellites for initial service and will open its satellite broadband to consumers later in 2026, after an enterprise preview that began April 8.0.63- €1.6B0.63
Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)
予定確度 79%5 日後SpaceX[1], quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.KalshiPolymarket14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.0.63- 0.63
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Arianespace Launches Ariane 6 on Its Maiden Flight, VA262
確定確度 87%2.2 年前Arianespace's newsroom and Wikipedia's[2][3] Ariane flight VA262 article confirm Ariane 6's maiden flight lifted off from Kourou on 9 July 2024.Europe's new heavy-lift launcher Ariane 6, built by ArianeGroup, flew for the first time from the Guiana Space Centre. The inaugural flight met its main objectives despite an anomaly in an upper-stage auxiliary unit late in the mission.0.62SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count
予定確度 75%99 日後An annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.KalshiPolymarketKalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.0.62
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