推定日付の確度: 推定確定日ではなく目標情報源が日付をどれだけ確定的に述べているか：確定、予定、推定、延期、未確認。「推定」のピンをすべて表示確度 65%総合信頼度: 65%ピンの情報源と参照がその日付をどれだけ裏付けているか。出典を含む 3 件の資料がピンの開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに重みは半分になります確度50%〜74%のピンをすべて表示
Estimated: the count is final only after the last 2026 FOMC decision, which the timeline dates to December 9, 2026 at 19:00 UTC; the market itself stays open to December 31 for emergency actions.[1]How Many Fed Rate Cuts Will 2026 Bring? Polymarket Says Zero
取引額 $5529.7万
Polymarket's 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' counts 25 bp cuts, including the December meeting. On November 2 traders priced zero cuts at 97.05%, with US$55.3 million traded.
- Observed November 2, 2026: the market prices 'no Fed rate cuts in 2026' at 97.05%, one cut at 1.15%, two cuts at 0.5% and three cuts at 0.15%; every count from four to 12 or more is at 0.05–0.15%. These are market-implied probabilities, not a forecast of the Fed's decision.[3]
- Total event volume is US$55,291,001, of which the 'no cuts' outcome accounts for about US$9.37 million; about US$35,200 traded in the previous 24 hours. Liquidity is about US$3.26 million.[3]
- Rules: it resolves to the exact number of 25 bp cuts in 2026, counting a 50 bp cut as two and any cut of 1–24 bp as one; emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings count, and the market stays open until 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Outcomes resolve early to No once more cuts have happened than a strike's count. The resolution source is the FOMC statements.[3]
- The pin is dated to the December 2026 FOMC decision (see the timeline pin for that meeting), the last scheduled chance to change the count.
- After December 31 it will be updated with the final count and a note on how the 97% reading fared.