経済2026/09/19@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
開始 2026/10/28 18:00予定確度 78%35 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.68
金融2023/05/09@ThePinGang
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Federal Reserve
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

開始 2023/05/08 未確認確度 25%3.4 年前
Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/01/27 19:00予定確度 85%126 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/04/28 18:00予定確度 85%217 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/10/27 18:00予定確度 85%1.1 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/07/28 18:00予定確度 85%308 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/12/08 19:00予定確度 85%1.2 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.66
金融2023/05/04@ThePinGang
The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007
Federal Reserve
2023/05/03〜2023/05/08 未確認確度 70%3.4 年前
The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/09/15 18:00予定確度 85%357 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/03/17 18:00予定確度 85%175 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/06/09 18:00予定確度 85%259 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.65
経済2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
開始 2026/12/09 19:00予定確度 78%77 日後The Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.65

金融投稿 2023/05/122023/05/12 6:43@ThePinGang タイムラインへ

6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.
— RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

開始 2023/05/11 未確認確度 25%Date has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.

開始: 2023年5月11日確度 25%確度低出典：出典

Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.

Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.

Dated (unconfirmed) to 2023-05-11.
Associated with Federal Reserve.

@ThePinGang

参考資料 1確度 25%

最初の項目は常にピンの出典です。全体の確度は、各資料が上記の開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均です。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに、重みは半分になります。

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twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1656838113858076672
twitter.com· 投稿 2023年5月12日· 開始 2023年5月11日 ✓· スコアの 100%
Date has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.

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1Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.

経済2026/09/19@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
開始 2026/10/28 18:00予定確度 78%35 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.68
金融2023/05/09@ThePinGang
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Federal Reserve
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

開始 2023/05/08 未確認確度 25%3.4 年前
Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/01/27 19:00予定確度 85%126 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/04/28 18:00予定確度 85%217 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.
0.68
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/10/27 18:00予定確度 85%1.1 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/07/28 18:00予定確度 85%308 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/12/08 19:00予定確度 85%1.2 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.66
金融2023/05/04@ThePinGang
The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007
Federal Reserve
2023/05/03〜2023/05/08 未確認確度 70%3.4 年前
The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/09/15 18:00予定確度 85%357 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/03/17 18:00予定確度 85%175 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.66
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/06/09 18:00予定確度 85%259 日後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.65
経済2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
開始 2026/12/09 19:00予定確度 78%77 日後The Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.65

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