- Start
- Jan 1, 203150% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
International Space Station Deorbit
- The ISS is expected to remain operational until the end of 2030, then be deorbited by the US Deorbit Vehicle; congressional support has emerged for a higher-orbit parking proposal as of 2026[1][3]
- NASA selected SpaceX on 26 June 2024 to develop the US Deorbit Vehicle under a contract worth up to $843 million; the station and vehicle are expected to break up destructively on re-entry[2][3]
- The vehicle is a souped-up cargo Dragon with about 35,000 pounds of propellant for 46 Draco engines, launched about 1.5 years before the final re-entry burn[2]
- Debris as large as a small car may survive along a narrow 1,200-mile footprint, likely in a remote South Pacific zone[2]
- NASA asked Congress for about $1.5 billion for the deorbit operation; the launch service is a future procurement[2][3]
- The ISS is at about 400 km, first module launched 20 November 1998, continuously crewed since 2 November 2000[1]
References 352% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Stationen.wikipedia.org· Posted Sep 11, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2031 ✓· 91% of score
Given as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…ructive reentry over the South Pacific. Estimated date.…"
- [2]74%NASA plans for space station's demise with new SpaceX 'Deorbit Vehicle'spaceflightnow.com· Published Jul 18, 2024· 4% of score
Spaceflight Now could not be fetched due to a network restriction, but its title and 18 July 2024 publish date confirm it covers NASA's[3] SpaceX deorbit vehicle plans for the ISS, supporting the pin's stored 2031 estimated deorbit date.
- [3]78%NASA Selects International Space Station US Deorbit Vehiclenasa.gov· Published Jun 26, 2024· 4% of score
NASA's own press release confirms the agency plans "the safe and responsible deorbit of the International Space Station... after the end of its operational life in 2030", with SpaceX selected 26 June 2024 to build the deorbit vehicle - consistent with the pin's stored 1 January 2031 estimated date, just after the 2030 end-of-life target.
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