References 180% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

• [1]80%
  Polymarket: Grok 5 released by...?

  polymarket.com· Posted Oct 15, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 100% of score

  xAI has announced no date. Polymarket’s ladder prices a 1.25% chance by October 31 and 13.5% by November 30, climbing to 39.5% by December 31, 2026, on nearly $20,000 in volume. The pin takes December 31, 2026, the peak window on the active board.

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