Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Angola Elects a National Assembly and President
Comissao Nacional Eleitoral (Angola)National Assembly, Luanda, Angola
Starts 08/31/2027ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 341 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Angola by August 2027"; with a deadline rather than a convened day, the pin takes the last day of August.
Angola holds general elections by August 2027 for the 220-seat National Assembly, whose winning party's list leader becomes president.
0.61
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP31 Opens in Antalya
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAntalya Expo Center, Antalya, Türkiye
11/09/2026 - 11/20/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 46 daysUNFCCC^[1] states the Government of Türkiye will host the thirty-first session "from Monday, 9 November, to Friday, 20 November 2026"; the pin's exclusive end is the following midnight UTC.
The 31st UN climate conference runs 9-20 November 2026 at the Antalya Expo Center, hosted by Türkiye, with about 100,000 participants expected.
0.61
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
Starts 01/01/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.60
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP32 Brings the Climate Talks to Addis Ababa
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia
Starts 11/30/2027ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsEthiopia's hosting was endorsed by the African Group on the second day of COP30 and the conference is set for November 2027, but UNFCCC^[1] has not yet published the exact days - so the pin takes the last day of the stated month.
The 32nd UN climate conference is held in Addis Ababa in November 2027, the first COP in sub-Saharan Africa in sixteen years, with the African Group holding the presidency.
0.60
Health09/21/2026@HealthDesk
WHO Declares the West Africa Ebola Outbreak an Emergency
World Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization
Starts 08/08/2014CONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE12.1 years agoThe WHO^[2] declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 8 August 2014, following the emergency committee's meeting of 6-7 August.
Eight months after the first cases in Guinea, the WHO declared the Ebola epidemic in West Africa a public health emergency of international concern. It became the largest Ebola outbreak in history: more than 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
0.59
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
Starts 10/09/2026 9:00AMSCHEDULED 86% CONFIDENCEin 15 daysNobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Nigeria Votes for a President and National Assembly
Independent National Electoral CommissionNational Assembly Complex, Abuja, Nigeria
Starts 01/16/2027SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 114 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections will be held in Nigeria on 16 January 2027 to elect the president and vice president, members of the Senate and House of Representatives", and INEC's own published election calendar carries the same date.
Nigerians elect a president, vice president, senators and members of the House of Representatives on 16 January 2027, with governorship and state assembly votes following on 6 February.
0.57
Sports09/20/2026@BuildDesk
King Salman Stadium Completes as Saudi Arabia's Largest Venue
Royal Commission for Riyadh CityKing Salman Road, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Starts 10/01/2029ESTIMATED 50% CONFIDENCEin 3.0 yearsThe Royal Commission for Riyadh City's announcement gives "completion scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2029", a quarter recorded here as its first day.^[1]
The 92,000-seat stadium rises in northern Riyadh along King Salman Road next to King Abdulaziz Park, its Populous design drawing on the surrounding mountainous landscape. It will be the Saudi national team's headquarters and the venue for the opening match and final of the 2034 World Cup, with a masterplan that adds an athletics stadium, training pitches and an aquatics centre with an Olympic-sized pool.
0.56
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Pelosi Lands in Taipei
Taipei Songshan Airport, Songshan District, Taipei, TaiwanUnited States House of Representatives
Starts 08/02/2022CONFIRMED 80% CONFIDENCE4.1 years agoThe delegation's own statement is datelined "Taipei, Taiwan – August 2, 2022" and was "issued this statement upon arrival in Taiwan". No hour is given, so the pin is an all-day one; the landing was late on 2 August local time, which is the same UTC day.^[1]
The first Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years touched down in Taipei on the night of 2 August 2022. Within hours the PLA's Eastern Theater Command began live-fire exercises around the island, opening the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.
0.56
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Micronesia Elects Its Congress
Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of MicronesiaFSM National Election Office
Starts 03/02/2027SCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCEin 159 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in the Federated States of Micronesia on 2 March 2027", sourced to the FSM National Election Office.
The Federated States of Micronesia holds general elections on 2 March 2027 for its 14-member Congress, including the four state senators elected every four years.
0.56
Food09/24/2026@AgriDesk
Wilmar AGM 2026: Lim Siong Guan Re-Elected Amid Proxy Adviser Concerns
Wilmar HQ, 28 Biopolis Road, Biopolis, Queenstown, Singapore 138568Wilmar International
Starts 04/23/2026 2:00AMCONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE154 days agoThe minutes record the meeting "on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 10.00 a.m. (Singapore time)" and that the chairman "declared the AGM closed at 11.20am".^[1]
Wilmar's lead independent director defended the risk committee he chairs over the China and Indonesia cases and won 95.9% of votes; Kuok Khoon Hong said he would retire if a suitable successor emerged.
0.56
Sports09/11/2026@ThePinGang
2030 FIFA World Cup Opens
Madrid, SpainFIFA
06/08/2030 - 06/09/2030ESTIMATED 61% CONFIDENCEin 3.7 yearsGiven as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…hes in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Estimated date.…"
A centenary tournament hosted by Spain, Portugal and Morocco, with opening matches in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Estimated date.
0.56

Stated as firm, per un.org^[1]'s High-level Meetings of the 81st Session page: "General debate : from 22 September to 26 September, and on 28 September 2026"; the UN's own coverage (GA/12785) records it opening on 22 September.

Start: Sep 22, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
End: Sep 28, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

UN General Assembly Holds Its 81st General Debate

World leaders address the UN General Assembly Hall in New York from 22 to 28 September 2026, as Assembly President Khalilur Rahman of Bangladesh opens the 81st session's debate and António Guterres gives his final address as Secretary-General.

The general debate of the 81st session runs from 22 to 26 September and on 28 September 2026, inside a high-level week that also holds meetings on climate action, sea-level rise, pandemic preparedness and the Durban Declaration's 25th anniversary^[1]
The session is presided over by Khalilur Rahman of Bangladesh under the theme "Restoring trust, managing transformation: A United Nations that delivers for all"^[6]
Secretary-General António Guterres opened the debate on 22 September with his final address to the Assembly, warning that "cracks have become canyons" and pledging to defend the Charter in his remaining 100 days in office^[3]
US President Donald Trump used his 22 September speech to defend military action against Iran and Venezuela, saying he faced a "big decision" over Iran^[4]
On day two, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had lost nearly 250,000 troops between January and August, and African leaders renewed the push for Security Council reform^[2]
Before the week, the Assembly voted 152 to 3, with 4 abstentions, to let the State of Palestine's President speak by pre-recorded statement^[5]

@PoliticsDesk

References 688% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]90%
un.org/en/ga/81/meetings
un.org· Posted Sep 24, 2026· Starts Sep 22, 2026 ✓· Ends Sep 28, 2026 ✓· 17% of score
Stated as firm, per un.org's High-level Meetings of the 81st Session page: "General debate : from 22 September to 26 September, and on 28 September 2026"; the UN's own coverage (GA/12785) records it opening on 22 September.
[2]85%
The Takeaway: UN General Assembly debate Day 2
news.un.org· Published Sep 24, 2026· 17% of score
UN News recap of the second day: Ukraine, Security Council reform and leaders' differing views of the UN.^[1]
[3]95%
GA/12785: Power of Law Must Prevail over Law of Power, Secretary-General Urges, as General Assembly Kicks Off High-Level Debate
press.un.org· Published Sep 22, 2026· 17% of score
The UN's own meeting coverage of the debate's first day, 22 September 2026: Guterres's final address, the Assembly President's opening and the day's speakers.^[1]
[4]85%
Trump defends military action against Iran, Venezuela, and calls for rebrand of AI
news.un.org· Published Sep 22, 2026· 17% of score
UN News report of the US President's address to the general debate on its first day.^[1]
[5]80%
GA/12784: General Assembly Adopts Resolution Allowing State of Palestine to Participate Virtually in High-level Debate
press.un.org· Published Sep 17, 2026· 16% of score
The UN's coverage of the 17 September vote (152-3-4) on Palestine's pre-recorded participation in the general debate.^[1]

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1UN General Assembly Holds Its 81st General Debate

Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Angola Elects a National Assembly and President
Comissao Nacional Eleitoral (Angola)National Assembly, Luanda, Angola
Starts 08/31/2027ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 341 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Angola by August 2027"; with a deadline rather than a convened day, the pin takes the last day of August.
Angola holds general elections by August 2027 for the 220-seat National Assembly, whose winning party's list leader becomes president.
0.61
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP31 Opens in Antalya
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAntalya Expo Center, Antalya, Türkiye
11/09/2026 - 11/20/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 46 daysUNFCCC^[1] states the Government of Türkiye will host the thirty-first session "from Monday, 9 November, to Friday, 20 November 2026"; the pin's exclusive end is the following midnight UTC.
The 31st UN climate conference runs 9-20 November 2026 at the Antalya Expo Center, hosted by Türkiye, with about 100,000 participants expected.
0.61
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
Starts 01/01/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.60
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP32 Brings the Climate Talks to Addis Ababa
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia
Starts 11/30/2027ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsEthiopia's hosting was endorsed by the African Group on the second day of COP30 and the conference is set for November 2027, but UNFCCC^[1] has not yet published the exact days - so the pin takes the last day of the stated month.
The 32nd UN climate conference is held in Addis Ababa in November 2027, the first COP in sub-Saharan Africa in sixteen years, with the African Group holding the presidency.
0.60
Health09/21/2026@HealthDesk
WHO Declares the West Africa Ebola Outbreak an Emergency
World Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva, SwitzerlandWorld Health Organization
Starts 08/08/2014CONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE12.1 years agoThe WHO^[2] declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 8 August 2014, following the emergency committee's meeting of 6-7 August.
Eight months after the first cases in Guinea, the WHO declared the Ebola epidemic in West Africa a public health emergency of international concern. It became the largest Ebola outbreak in history: more than 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
0.59
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
Starts 10/09/2026 9:00AMSCHEDULED 86% CONFIDENCEin 15 daysNobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Nigeria Votes for a President and National Assembly
Independent National Electoral CommissionNational Assembly Complex, Abuja, Nigeria
Starts 01/16/2027SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 114 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections will be held in Nigeria on 16 January 2027 to elect the president and vice president, members of the Senate and House of Representatives", and INEC's own published election calendar carries the same date.
Nigerians elect a president, vice president, senators and members of the House of Representatives on 16 January 2027, with governorship and state assembly votes following on 6 February.
0.57
Sports09/20/2026@BuildDesk
King Salman Stadium Completes as Saudi Arabia's Largest Venue
Royal Commission for Riyadh CityKing Salman Road, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Starts 10/01/2029ESTIMATED 50% CONFIDENCEin 3.0 yearsThe Royal Commission for Riyadh City's announcement gives "completion scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2029", a quarter recorded here as its first day.^[1]
The 92,000-seat stadium rises in northern Riyadh along King Salman Road next to King Abdulaziz Park, its Populous design drawing on the surrounding mountainous landscape. It will be the Saudi national team's headquarters and the venue for the opening match and final of the 2034 World Cup, with a masterplan that adds an athletics stadium, training pitches and an aquatics centre with an Olympic-sized pool.
0.56
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Pelosi Lands in Taipei
Taipei Songshan Airport, Songshan District, Taipei, TaiwanUnited States House of Representatives
Starts 08/02/2022CONFIRMED 80% CONFIDENCE4.1 years agoThe delegation's own statement is datelined "Taipei, Taiwan – August 2, 2022" and was "issued this statement upon arrival in Taiwan". No hour is given, so the pin is an all-day one; the landing was late on 2 August local time, which is the same UTC day.^[1]
The first Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years touched down in Taipei on the night of 2 August 2022. Within hours the PLA's Eastern Theater Command began live-fire exercises around the island, opening the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.
0.56
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Micronesia Elects Its Congress
Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of MicronesiaFSM National Election Office
Starts 03/02/2027SCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCEin 159 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in the Federated States of Micronesia on 2 March 2027", sourced to the FSM National Election Office.
The Federated States of Micronesia holds general elections on 2 March 2027 for its 14-member Congress, including the four state senators elected every four years.
0.56
Food09/24/2026@AgriDesk
Wilmar AGM 2026: Lim Siong Guan Re-Elected Amid Proxy Adviser Concerns
Wilmar HQ, 28 Biopolis Road, Biopolis, Queenstown, Singapore 138568Wilmar International
Starts 04/23/2026 2:00AMCONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE154 days agoThe minutes record the meeting "on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 10.00 a.m. (Singapore time)" and that the chairman "declared the AGM closed at 11.20am".^[1]
Wilmar's lead independent director defended the risk committee he chairs over the China and Indonesia cases and won 95.9% of votes; Kuok Khoon Hong said he would retire if a suitable successor emerged.
0.56
Sports09/11/2026@ThePinGang
2030 FIFA World Cup Opens
Madrid, SpainFIFA
06/08/2030 - 06/09/2030ESTIMATED 61% CONFIDENCEin 3.7 yearsGiven as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…hes in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Estimated date.…"
A centenary tournament hosted by Spain, Portugal and Morocco, with opening matches in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Estimated date.
0.56

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