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- Mar 18, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
NHTSA Escalates Its Tesla FSD Low-Visibility Probe to 3.2 Million Cars
- On 18 March 2026 NHTSA upgraded Preliminary Evaluation PE24031, opened on 17 October 2024 into about 2.4 million cars, to Engineering Analysis EA26002[1][3]
- The analysis covers an estimated 3,203,754 vehicles: 2016-2026 Model S and X, 2017-2026 Model 3, 2020-2026 Model Y and 2023-2026 Cybertruck with FSD[1]
- It is the step NHTSA must take before it can seek a recall[2]
- NHTSA says the camera-only system failed to detect glare, dust and other obscurants, or warned only immediately before a crash, and in each reviewed crash FSD lost track of or never detected the vehicle ahead[1]
- Nine incidents are counted, including one fatal crash and two injury crashes, and six recent crashes will be analysed[1][2]
- Tesla's own analysis said an updated degradation-detection system might have affected 3 of the 9 crashes; NHTSA does not know which cars have the update[1]
- NHTSA also said Tesla's internal data and labelling limits could have led to under-reporting of crashes[1]
- Tesla began building that update on 28 June 2024, the day after reporting a fatal crash of 28 November 2023[1]
References 388% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2026/INOA-EA26002-10023.pdfstatic.nhtsa.gov· Posted Sep 28, 2026· Starts Mar 18, 2026 ✓· 51% of score
NHTSA's[3] ODI resume for EA26002: 'Prompted By: PE24031... Date Opened: 03/18/2026'. No time of day is stated, so the pin is all day.
- [2]80%US widens Tesla FSD probe to 3.2 million vehicles after nine crashes linked to visibility issues, one fatalmalaymail.com· Published Mar 20, 2026· 24% of score
Reuters report carried by Malay Mail: an engineering analysis is 'a required step before it can seek a recall'; the probe covers most Teslas on US roads; Tesla did not immediately respond.
- [3]90%NHTSA ODI closing resume, PE24031static.nhtsa.gov· Published Mar 18, 2026· 24% of score
NHTSA[1] closes Preliminary Evaluation PE24031 (opened 10/17/2024, 2,410,002 vehicles) on 03/18/2026: 'This (PE) Preliminary Evaluation has been upgraded to an Engineering Analysis.'
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