San Francisco, California, United States
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Estimated: On October 21, 2026 Polymarket[1] priced the next qualifying Claude Opus release at 9% by October 31, 60.5% by November 30 and 82.5% by December 31, on US$11,087.15 event volume. November 1–30 carries the largest remaining quoted interval mass (51.5 percentage points); November 1 marks its estimated onset, not an announced launch day. Each individual timing book is under US$10,000. Polymarket
October 21 Polymarket odds favour a November window for Opus 5.6 or higher: 60.5% by November 30 on US$11,087.15 event volume. November 1 is the estimated window boundary, not an official release date.
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