Gemini 4 Released
ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidenceEstimated: Google has given no date - Kavukcuoglu told The Information that Gemini 4 is in post-training, that Google intends "as soon as possible, to release an early post-training output" and hopes for "much earlier" than the end of 2026 (9to5Google[1], 24 Sep); on 28 Sep Polymarket[2][3] prices a Gemini 4.0 release at 45% by 15 October and 78.5% by 31 October, and its weekly Gemini Pro book puts the heaviest week at 12-18 October (31.5%), so the pin takes Wednesday 14 October, the day of the week of two of Google's September model launches - all unconfirmed.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Google's next flagship model, Gemini 4, is in post-training and being tested inside Google's Antigravity coding tool, and DeepMind chief Koray Kavukcuoglu wants an early version out "much earlier" than the end of 2026; this pin predicts mid-October.
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