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- Oct 14, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Gemini 4 Released
- Google DeepMind chief Koray Kavukcuoglu confirmed to The Information at its AI Agenda Live summit that Gemini 4 has entered post-training, the phase of safety testing and guardrails before release, and that Google is testing it internally to power Antigravity[1]
- "Our intention is to, like—as soon as possible—to release an early post-training output because we see the results and we are excited", he said, hoping for "much earlier" than the end of 2026 but giving no date[1][4]
- Google plans a staged release: an early version first, then fast iterations based on feedback rather than one polished launch[5]
- Google's last flagship releases were Gemini 3 Pro in November 2025 and Gemini 3.1 Pro in February 2026; it teased Gemini 3.5 Pro but never released it, and Kavukcuoglu said Google "took a little bit of a step back" to focus on Flash models[1][5]
- Rivals moved first: Anthropic launched Claude Opus 5.5 on 22 September and OpenAI its GPT-6 Sol and Luna models the same day[4]
- On 28 September Polymarket gives a Gemini 4.0 release 45% by 15 October and 78.5% by 31 October on about $622,000 traded, and puts the heaviest week for the next Gemini Pro at 12-18 October[2][3]
Notable features
References 573% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%9to5google.com/2026/09/24/google-says-gemini-4-release-is-coming-as-soon-as-possible9to5google.com· Posted Sep 28, 2026· Starts Oct 14, 2026 ✓· 20% of score
Estimated: Google has given no date - Kavukcuoglu told The Information that Gemini 4 is in post-training, that Google intends "as soon as possible, to release an early post-training output" and hopes for "much earlier" than the end of 2026 (9to5Google, 24 Sep); on 28 Sep Polymarket[2][3] prices a Gemini 4.0 release at 45% by 15 October and 78.5% by 31 October, and its weekly Gemini Pro book puts the heaviest week at 12-18 October (31.5%), so the pin takes Wednesday 14 October, the day of the week of two of Google's September model launches - all unconfirmed.
- [2]80%Polymarket: Gemini 4.0 released by...?polymarket.com· Added Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
On 28 September the market, with about $622,000 traded, prices a public Gemini 4.0 release at 2% by 30 September, 45% by 15 October, 78.5% by 31 October and 89.5% by 30 November.[1]
- [3]75%Polymarket: When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?polymarket.com· Added Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
The weekly version of the next-Gemini-Pro question (about $111,000 traded) puts the most weight on 12-18 October at 31.5%, with 26 October-1 November at 30.5% and no release by 1 November at 20%.[1]
- [4]85%Gemini 4 is in post-training and could ship before the end of 2026thenextweb.com· Published Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
The Next Web says Kavukcuoglu, who took over running Google DeepMind in August, spoke at The Information's AI Agenda Live and gave no release date, but wants Gemini 4 out "much earlier" than the end of the year; it is in post-training and being tried in Antigravity, while Anthropic and OpenAI shipped Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Sol and Luna on 22 September.
- [5]75%DeepMind says Gemini 4 is coming much earlier than expecteddataconomy.com· Published Sep 25, 2026· 20% of score
Dataconomy reports the remarks were made at the summit on Wednesday, that Google plans to release Gemini 4 in stages starting with an early version, and that Pichai had promised a Gemini 3.5 Pro update for June at I/O in May that never shipped.
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