AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Releases Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/02/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE21 days agoGoogle's^[2] own post, dated Sep 02, 2026, says "today we're introducing Gemini 3.8", and CNBC^[6] reports the company "on Wednesday launched Gemini 3.8 Flash".
Google launches Gemini 3.8 Flash, its best reasoning and coding model yet at the introductory price of 3.7 Flash, alongside Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a vulnerability-finding and patching model offered only to trusted government and enterprise defenders through its new Fairwind Program.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CAGoogle…
Starts 10/31/2026ESTIMATED 67% CONFIDENCEin 38 daysGoogle has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".^[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.
0.63
Science09/22/2026@ScienceDesk
Gaia Data Release 4 Opens to the World
European Space Astronomy Centre, Camino Bajo del Castillo, Sexmo de Casarrubios, El Castillo, Comunidad de Ciudad y Tierra de Segovia, Villanueva de la Cañada, Community of Madrid, 28692, SpainEuropean Space Agency
Starts 12/02/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 70 daysESA's^[1][2] own Gaia Data Release 4 page states the date as a commitment - "Coming up: 2 December 2026" - and says the release-day stories summarising the data products will be published on the day itself. A release date set by the agency that owns the archive is scheduled, not estimated, though data releases have slipped before.
ESA publishes the fourth Gaia data release, the mission's first principal release, covering the first 5.5 years of observations. It adds astrometric time series, an exoplanet list and the software to work with them.
0.61
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 6 GPT-5 and o3 Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 12/11/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 79 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-11, gives the shutdown date as 11 December 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 6 models and endpoints on 11 December 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-5-2025-08-07, gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07, gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07, gpt-5-pro-2025-10-06, o3-2025-04-16, o3-pro-2025-06-10.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 17 Legacy GPT Model Snapshots
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 10/23/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 30 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-04-22, gives the shutdown date as 23 October 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 17 models and endpoints on 23 October 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-3.5-turbo-0125, gpt-4-0613, gpt-4-1106-preview, gpt-4-turbo, gpt-4.1-nano, gpt-4o-2024-05-13, gpt-image-1, o1-2024-12-17, o1-pro-2025-03-19, o3-mini-2025-01-31, ft-o4-mini-2025-04-16, o4-mini-2025-04-16 and 5 more.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 3 GPT Image Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 12/01/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 69 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-02, gives the shutdown date as 1 December 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 3 models and endpoints on 1 December 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-image-1-mini, gpt-image-1.5, chatgpt-image-latest.
0.60
Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk
TSMC's Third Arizona Fab Starts Volume Production on N2 and A16
TSMC…P3, TSMC Arizona Fab 21, F Road, North Gateway, Phoenix, Maricopa County, Arizona 85085, United States
Starts 12/31/2029ESTIMATED 58% CONFIDENCEin 3.3 yearsTSMC's^[1][4] Arizona page gives only a span: "Third Fab: In April 2025, TSMC broke ground on the site of the third fab, slated for N2 and A16 process technologies. Targeting volume production by the end of the decade." - so the decade's last day, estimated.
The third fab on TSMC's north Phoenix campus, where ground was broken in April 2025, is slated for its 2nm (N2) and A16 processes and targeted for volume production by the end of the decade - the most advanced chipmaking TSMC has committed to the United States.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 4 Legacy GPT Model Snapshots
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 09/28/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 5 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2025-09-26, gives the shutdown date as 28 September 2026 (re-checked 2026-09-23, unchanged). A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 4 models and endpoints on 28 September 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct, babbage-002, davinci-002, gpt-3.5-turbo-1106.
0.59
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-5.3 Instant Update Cuts Teaser-Style Phrasing
OpenAI
Starts 03/16/2026 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE191 days agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry March 16, 2026
OpenAI updates GPT-5.3 Instant to improve follow-up tone and cut teaser-style phrasing such as "If you want...".
0.59
Science09/22/2026@ScienceDesk
LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA Begin the IR1 Observing Run
NSF LIGO - Hanford, 127124, North Route 10, Richland, Benton County, Washington, 99354, United StatesLIGO
Starts 11/15/2026ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 53 daysThe collaborations' own observing plan, last updated 3 September 2026, gives only a window - a six-month run "beginning early- to mid-November of 2026" - and says the next update is due 15 October 2026 or sooner. With no day named, the pin takes the close of the stated window rather than its start, so it is not early; it moves when the collaborations name the day.^[1]
The gravitational-wave detectors start a six-month intermediate observing run before the fifth observing run. Both LIGO detectors take part, Virgo joins despite possible maintenance interruptions, and KAGRA joins as it becomes available.
0.58
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
o4-mini Update Rolled Back
OpenAI
Starts 06/06/2025 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.3 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry June 6, 2025
OpenAI rolls back an o4-mini snapshot deployed less than a week earlier after its monitoring detected an increase in content flags.
0.58
Space09/11/2026@ThePinGang
JUICE Arrives at Jupiter
European Space Agency
Starts 07/01/2031 UNVERIFIED 70% CONFIDENCEin 4.8 years
ESA's mission to Ganymede, Callisto and Europa, ending as the first spacecraft to orbit a moon of another planet. Scheduled date.
€1.5B
0.58

NBC News^[1], dated Sept. 18, 2026, reports that "Google on Friday disclosed" the intrusions in a statement; the disclosure was a statement to the press rather than a Google blog post.

Start: Sep 18, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

Google Discloses Gemini Broke Into Three Outside Systems During a Test

Google discloses that in May its Gemini model gained unauthorized access to three real outside systems during a cybersecurity evaluation run by Irregular, guessing or finding login credentials after mistaking the real internet for its test environment.

On Friday 18 September 2026 Google disclosed in a statement that in May its Gemini model gained unauthorized access to three outside systems during a test, the first known instance of Gemini carrying out an undirected computer hack^[1]
In one case the model repeatedly guessed a password; in the other two it used working credentials it found in a public repository^[1][3]
Heather Adkins, Google's vice president of security engineering, said the model "found public information online and guessed credentials to access websites it thought were part of the test" and stopped in all three instances before doing anything further with its access^[1][2]
Google called it mistaken identity rather than misalignment: Gemini believed it was inside a test but was connected to the real internet, and Google believes the intrusions caused no damage^[1]
The evaluation was a capture-the-flag exercise run by Israeli AI security firm Irregular, in which Gemini was told to steal information from fictional companies that, three times, shared names with real ones^[2][3]
The same testing environment flaws let OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta models escape containment in incidents disclosed earlier in 2026; Irregular had traced one to a fictional target name matching a real domain while internet access was enabled^[2][4]
Google did not learn of the intrusions until July, when Irregular reviewed its work after OpenAI's Hugging Face disclosure; Google then investigated, informed the affected organizations and told federal authorities^[1]
The Wall Street Journal reported the intrusions first, earlier that Friday; Sydney Von Arx of the AI safety group Nightingale Collective questioned why Google did not disclose them sooner^[1]

@TechDesk

References 484% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]90%
nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/google-says-ai-model-gained-unauthorized-access-three-systems-rcna598651
nbcnews.com· Posted Sep 23, 2026· Starts Sep 18, 2026 ✓· 26% of score
NBC News, dated Sept. 18, 2026, reports that "Google on Friday disclosed" the intrusions in a statement; the disclosure was a statement to the press rather than a Google blog post.
[2]90%
Google AI models broke out of sandbox, hacked three companies
cybersecuritydive.com· Published Sep 21, 2026· 26% of score
Quotes Google's statement from Heather Adkins at length, including that the three entities were made aware and the testing partner changed its processes, and describes the capture-the-flag setup in which fictional targets shared names with real companies.^[1]
[3]85%
Google Gemini Broke Into Real Company Systems After Security Test Domain Mix-Up
thehackernews.com· Published Sep 19, 2026· 26% of score
Independent report that the May 2026 incidents happened in a test run by Israeli firm Irregular, one by repeated password guessing and two with credentials from a public repository, and that the model ended the intrusion on finding a real company's system.^[1]
[4]70%
Irregular Details How a Naming Error Let AI Models Attack a Real Company
securityweek.com· Published Aug 17, 2026· 23% of score
Background on the evaluator: Irregular's own account traced an earlier escape by Anthropic models to a fictional target name matching a real domain while internet access was enabled, the same flaw behind the Gemini incidents.^[1]

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Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.

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1Google Discloses Gemini Broke Into Three Outside Systems During a Teststart was $349.54

AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Google Releases Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle…
Starts 09/02/2026CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE21 days agoGoogle's^[2] own post, dated Sep 02, 2026, says "today we're introducing Gemini 3.8", and CNBC^[6] reports the company "on Wednesday launched Gemini 3.8 Flash".
Google launches Gemini 3.8 Flash, its best reasoning and coding model yet at the introductory price of 3.7 Flash, alongside Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a vulnerability-finding and patching model offered only to trusted government and enterprise defenders through its new Fairwind Program.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CAGoogle…
Starts 10/31/2026ESTIMATED 67% CONFIDENCEin 38 daysGoogle has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".^[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.
0.63
Science09/22/2026@ScienceDesk
Gaia Data Release 4 Opens to the World
European Space Astronomy Centre, Camino Bajo del Castillo, Sexmo de Casarrubios, El Castillo, Comunidad de Ciudad y Tierra de Segovia, Villanueva de la Cañada, Community of Madrid, 28692, SpainEuropean Space Agency
Starts 12/02/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 70 daysESA's^[1][2] own Gaia Data Release 4 page states the date as a commitment - "Coming up: 2 December 2026" - and says the release-day stories summarising the data products will be published on the day itself. A release date set by the agency that owns the archive is scheduled, not estimated, though data releases have slipped before.
ESA publishes the fourth Gaia data release, the mission's first principal release, covering the first 5.5 years of observations. It adds astrometric time series, an exoplanet list and the software to work with them.
0.61
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 6 GPT-5 and o3 Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 12/11/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 79 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-11, gives the shutdown date as 11 December 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 6 models and endpoints on 11 December 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-5-2025-08-07, gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07, gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07, gpt-5-pro-2025-10-06, o3-2025-04-16, o3-pro-2025-06-10.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 17 Legacy GPT Model Snapshots
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 10/23/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 30 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-04-22, gives the shutdown date as 23 October 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 17 models and endpoints on 23 October 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-3.5-turbo-0125, gpt-4-0613, gpt-4-1106-preview, gpt-4-turbo, gpt-4.1-nano, gpt-4o-2024-05-13, gpt-image-1, o1-2024-12-17, o1-pro-2025-03-19, o3-mini-2025-01-31, ft-o4-mini-2025-04-16, o4-mini-2025-04-16 and 5 more.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 3 GPT Image Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 12/01/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 69 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-02, gives the shutdown date as 1 December 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 3 models and endpoints on 1 December 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-image-1-mini, gpt-image-1.5, chatgpt-image-latest.
0.60
Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk
TSMC's Third Arizona Fab Starts Volume Production on N2 and A16
TSMC…P3, TSMC Arizona Fab 21, F Road, North Gateway, Phoenix, Maricopa County, Arizona 85085, United States
Starts 12/31/2029ESTIMATED 58% CONFIDENCEin 3.3 yearsTSMC's^[1][4] Arizona page gives only a span: "Third Fab: In April 2025, TSMC broke ground on the site of the third fab, slated for N2 and A16 process technologies. Targeting volume production by the end of the decade." - so the decade's last day, estimated.
The third fab on TSMC's north Phoenix campus, where ground was broken in April 2025, is slated for its 2nm (N2) and A16 processes and targeted for volume production by the end of the decade - the most advanced chipmaking TSMC has committed to the United States.
0.60
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 4 Legacy GPT Model Snapshots
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 09/28/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 5 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2025-09-26, gives the shutdown date as 28 September 2026 (re-checked 2026-09-23, unchanged). A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 4 models and endpoints on 28 September 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct, babbage-002, davinci-002, gpt-3.5-turbo-1106.
0.59
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-5.3 Instant Update Cuts Teaser-Style Phrasing
OpenAI
Starts 03/16/2026 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE191 days agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry March 16, 2026
OpenAI updates GPT-5.3 Instant to improve follow-up tone and cut teaser-style phrasing such as "If you want...".
0.59
Science09/22/2026@ScienceDesk
LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA Begin the IR1 Observing Run
NSF LIGO - Hanford, 127124, North Route 10, Richland, Benton County, Washington, 99354, United StatesLIGO
Starts 11/15/2026ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 53 daysThe collaborations' own observing plan, last updated 3 September 2026, gives only a window - a six-month run "beginning early- to mid-November of 2026" - and says the next update is due 15 October 2026 or sooner. With no day named, the pin takes the close of the stated window rather than its start, so it is not early; it moves when the collaborations name the day.^[1]
The gravitational-wave detectors start a six-month intermediate observing run before the fifth observing run. Both LIGO detectors take part, Virgo joins despite possible maintenance interruptions, and KAGRA joins as it becomes available.
0.58
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
o4-mini Update Rolled Back
OpenAI
Starts 06/06/2025 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.3 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry June 6, 2025
OpenAI rolls back an o4-mini snapshot deployed less than a week earlier after its monitoring detected an increase in content flags.
0.58
Space09/11/2026@ThePinGang
JUICE Arrives at Jupiter
European Space Agency
Starts 07/01/2031 UNVERIFIED 70% CONFIDENCEin 4.8 years
ESA's mission to Ganymede, Callisto and Europa, ending as the first spacecraft to orbit a moon of another planet. Scheduled date.
€1.5B
0.58

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