NOAA's October El Niño Update Follows a 75% Chance of a Record Event
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, 5830, University Research Court, College Park, Prince George's County, Maryland, 20740, United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 6 daysNOAA's[1] 10 September 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion states that the next discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2026.
After NOAA's 10 September advisory put 75% odds on a historic El Niño this autumn, the Climate Prediction Center issues its next ENSO discussion on 8 October 2026.
