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- Nov 12, 202650% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
ADF&G Issues Its 2027 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast
- ADF&G's Bristol Bay commercial salmon page lists a sockeye forecast for every season from 2021 to 2026; the 2027 forecast is the next in the series[1]
- The 2026 season it follows ended with a 45.7-million-fish inshore run, the first under 50 million since 2014, and a 30.1-million sockeye harvest[2]
- The 2026 run came in 4% above the inshore forecast of 44.1 million, while the harvest was 7% under its forecast[2]
- Salmon were worth a preliminary $264.0 million to fishermen in 2026[2]
- ADF&G issued its last two forecasts at noon on 7 November 2024 and 13 November 2025[3][4]
References 468% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 68%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=commercialbyareabristolbay.salmonadfg.alaska.gov· Posted Sep 27, 2026· Starts Nov 12, 2026 ✓· 43% of score
Estimated: ADF&G issued its Bristol Bay sockeye forecasts on 3 November 2023, 7 November 2024 and 13 November 2025 (all at 12:00 p.m.), so the 2027 forecast is put on Thursday 12 November 2026.
- [2]85%2026 Bristol Bay Salmon Season Summary (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Sep 22, 2026· 42% of score
The season the 2027 forecast follows: a 45.7-million inshore run, first under 50 million since 2014, 4% above forecast; 30.1-million sockeye harvest, 7% under forecast; $264.0 million exvessel value.[1]
- [3]75%2026 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Nov 13, 2025· 13% of score
Last year's forecast, issued at noon on 13 November 2025: 45.32 million total run.[1]
- [4]70%2025 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast-REVISED (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Nov 7, 2024· 3% of score
The year before, issued at noon on 7 November 2024: 51.38 million total run.[1]
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