- Start
- Nov 13, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
ADF&G Forecasts a 45.3-Million-Fish Bristol Bay Sockeye Run for 2026
- ADF&G forecast a 2026 Bristol Bay sockeye total run of 45.32 million fish, with an 80% range of 31.12-59.52 million[1]
- An inshore run of 44.05 million, escapement of 11.79 million and a Bristol Bay harvestable surplus of 32.26 million fish (1.27 million more in the South Peninsula)[1]
- ADF&G rates a run of 43-55 million as 'strong', the 60th-80th percentile of runs since 1961[1]
- Since 2006 its preseason forecasts have under-forecast the run by 14% on average, from 36% under in 2014 to 21% over in 2011[1]
- It followed a 2025 inshore run of 56.7 million fish and a harvest of 41.2 million[2]
References 387% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/dcfnewsrelease/1745780946.pdfadfg.alaska.gov· Posted Sep 27, 2026· Starts Nov 13, 2025 ✓· 76% of score
ADF&G advisory '2026 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast', 'Date Issued: November 13, 2025, Time Issued: 12:00 p.m.'
- [2]80%2025 Bristol Bay Salmon Season Summary (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Sep 24, 2025· 18% of score
The season the forecast followed: a 2025 inshore run of 56.7 million sockeye, the 11th straight year above 50 million, and a commercial harvest of 41.2 million.[1]
- [3]70%2025 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast-REVISED (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Nov 7, 2024· 5% of score
The previous year's forecast, 51.38 million total run, issued at noon on 7 November 2024 - the same early-November slot.[1]
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