- Start
- Sep 22, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Bristol Bay's 2026 Sockeye Run Falls Short of 50 Million for the First Time Since 2014
- The 2026 inshore sockeye run was 45.7 million fish, 8% below the 20-year average of 49.6 million and the first run under 50 million since 2014[1]
- That was 4% above the preseason inshore forecast of 44.1 million; the commercial harvest of 30.1 million sockeye was 7% below the 32.3 million forecast[1][2]
- Every escapement goal was met or exceeded except the Togiak River; baywide escapement totalled 15.6 million fish[1]
- Preliminary exvessel value of all salmon was $264.0 million, 21% above the 20-year average of $207.8 million[1]
- Other species: 10,700 Chinook (highest since 2019, partly from new counting and a ban on releasing Nushagak kings), 457,100 chum, 55,100 coho and 666,700 pink salmon[1]
- Sockeye averaged 5.0 pounds, and the run arrived two days earlier than average[1]
- In 2025 the inshore run had been 56.7 million with a 41.2-million harvest[3]
References 387% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/dcfnewsrelease/1838297519.pdfadfg.alaska.gov· Posted Sep 27, 2026· Starts Sep 22, 2026 ✓· 65% of score
ADF&G advisory '2026 BRISTOL BAY SALMON SEASON SUMMARY', 'For Immediate Release: September 22, 2026, Time: 3:00 p.m.'
- [2]85%2026 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Forecast (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Nov 13, 2025· 19% of score
The preseason forecast the run is measured against: 45.32 million total run, 44.05 million inshore and a 32.26-million-fish Bristol Bay harvest.[1]
- [3]80%2025 Bristol Bay Salmon Season Summary (ADF&G)adfg.alaska.gov· Published Sep 24, 2025· 16% of score
The year before: a 56.7-million inshore run, 11th straight above 50 million, and a harvest of 41.2 million sockeye.[1]
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