Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting

经济发布于 2026/09/192026/09/19 5:29@OddsDesk 去时间线

Federal Reserve

开始于 2026/10/28 18:00

Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting · Chronopin

The FOMC's October 2026 meeting runs 27–28 October, with the decision due on the 28th; unlike September and December it carries no Summary of Economic Projections^[2]
Kalshi traders are close to evenly split: a 25bp hike at 55%, the Fed maintaining rates at 44% and a hike of more than 25bps at 2%^[1]
The Kalshi page disagrees with itself, listing Hike 25bps at 55% while the order ticket beside it reads “Odds 57% chance” against a 55¢ Yes^[1]
Its post-meeting rate strikes put the rate above 3.75% at 98%, above 4.00% at 58% and above 4.25% at 2%^[1]
The market opened on 29 September 2025, has $1,947,655 of volume, closes on 28 October 2026 at 1:59pm EDT with projected payout at 2:09pm, and resolves from the Federal Reserve as mutually exclusive outcomes; if the meeting were cancelled, “Fed maintains rate” would resolve Yes^[1]
The meeting follows the 16 September decision, when the Committee voted 12-0 to “raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate”, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT and the new range effective 17 September^[5][7]
That statement described activity expanding at a solid pace with elevated uncertainty owing in part to geopolitical developments, resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, robust capital investment and job gains keeping pace with the workforce, and said inflation “remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability”^[5]
It was the Fed's first increase since July 2023, and Bloomberg reported that the Committee “penciled in an additional hike before the end of the year”^[1]
The September dot plot projects a target range of 4.00%–4.25% at yearend 2026 and 2027, implying one more quarter point this year: 12 participants put yearend 2026 a quarter point above the current range and four projected two more quarter-point hikes^[6]
That is a sharp turn from March, when participants had projected half a point of cuts across 2026 and 2027; the Fed's previous move had been a cut in December 2025 to 3.50%–3.75%^[6]
The accompanying projections put PCE inflation at 3.7% at yearend 2026, a full point higher than the March projection, falling to 2.3% at yearend 2027, with 2026 unemployment revised down 30bp to 4.1% and real GDP growth largely unchanged^[6]
Chair Kevin Warsh, who does not contribute a dot, held the press conference after the statement^[6]
Not everyone thought the move was enough: Bloomberg reported on 17 September that “Bill Dudley Calls Fed's 25-Basis-Point Hike 'Too Small'”, with Dudley saying another hike is in order “unless the data changes pretty dramatically”^[1]
Markets repriced: the two-year Treasury yield touched 4.744%, its highest intraday level since July 2024, and the two- and twenty-year yields closed at 4.74% and 5.39%^[1][6]
For savers, Raisin notes variable high-yield savings APYs typically track such increases upward within one to two weeks and partner banks usually update offers within 3 to 10 business days, though a 25bp rise does not always lift CD yields by exactly 0.25%; the national average savings rate was 0.38% as of August 2026^[7]
The hike was the lead story on 17 September for both Prof G Markets, where Ed Elson and Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times broke down the decision and what a high rate environment means for markets, and Bloomberg Surveillance, whose episode is titled “The Fed Hikes Rates” but carries no description^[3][4]

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FOMC 与会者对适当货币政策的评估:“点阵图”

Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting

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Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007

FOMC 与会者对适当货币政策的评估:“点阵图”

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参考资料 7可信度 78%

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