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Falcon 9 launches Starlink Group 15-25
预估延期10天可信度 60%17天后Spaceflight Now's[2] schedule (checked 2026-09-23): "Falcon 9 Starlink 15-25 - 'TBD' launch time on October 10 | SLC-4E, Vandenberg"; rocketlaunch.org gives October 10, 4:00 PM UTC. No firm time yet.A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.70- 0.70
Arianespace Launches Ariane 5 on Its Final Flight, VA261
已确认可信度 85%3.2年前Spaceflight Now[3] and ESA both confirm Ariane 5 flight VA261, the rocket's final launch, lifted off on 5 July 2023.Arianespace flew Europe's Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket for the last time from the Guiana Space Centre, retiring the launcher after 27 years and 117 missions. The final flight, VA261, carried Germany's Heinrich Hertz communications satellite and France's Syracuse 4B military satellite to orbit.0.69Falcon 9 launches Crew-13
SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Landing Zone 40.0.67- $843M0.66
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NASA Lands Astronauts on the Moon Again
预估可信度 66%3.3年后No landing date is set. The market’s heaviest year is 2029, which carries about 31 of the 44 points priced before 2030 (13% before 2029 rising to 44% before 2030), and a year-only date takes its last day. The 2027 and 2028 rungs are thinly traded and add under 3 points between them. The figures are the chance in the strike list; the order ticket reads 49% for the same before-2030 contract.[1]KalshiKalshiOn 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s moon-landing market priced a crewed NASA landing at 1.3% before 2027, 2.3% before 2028, 13% before 2029 and 44% before 2030 — putting the largest single year of probability, about 31 points, on 2029. The companion market had the United States as the next country to do it at 55%, with China at 28%.0.63Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit
预估可信度 69%1.3年后No docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.KalshiPolymarketDocking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.0.63- 0.63
Starship 发射 Starlink Group 31-1（Starship 第14次飞行）
已排期可信度 79%5天后SpaceX[1]，2026年9月22日的表述：“现计划最早于9月28日（周一）发射 Starship 第14次飞行，视监管批准情况而定。75分钟的发射窗口将于中部时间上午7:15开启。”此前已从9月22日推迟过一次，且 FAA 许可仍未落实。KalshiPolymarket两级式 Starship 运载火箭的第14次试飞。这是 Starship V3 的第3次飞行，也是 Starship 首次将卫星（一批名为 Starlink Group 31-1 的星链卫星）部署到稳定的近地轨道。 飞船预计在距地约275公里的高度飞行，用近10小时绕地球约6圈，计划在智利以西的太平洋海域溅落。 第14次飞行中助推器的主要测试目标，是成功完成发射、上升、级间分离、回推点火以及在墨西哥湾离岸落点的着陆点火。 Starship 将首次把26颗 Starlink V3 卫星送入轨道，旨在大幅提升网络容量和用户速率。每颗 Starlink V3 卫星可为星座增加 1 Tbps 的容量。从美国得州 SpaceX Starbase 的2号轨道发射台升空，前往近地轨道。助推器计划在墨西哥湾着陆。0.63- 0.62
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