已确认可信度 86%Happened as dated, per interestingengineering.com[1]: "…reaking Mission to ‘Touch’ the Sun Will Launch in 2018 NASA[3] has just announced that the Solar Probe…"
NASA's Parker Solar Probe will be the first spacecraft to fly directly into the atmosphere of the Sun and explore its brutally hot corona.
已确认可信度 83%Happened as dated, per arstechnica.com[1]: "…ty of adding crew members to the maiden launch of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. This seemed…"
The agency is now likely to be at least three years late in delivering its new booster. I think that new manufacturing has caused some of the delays we’ve seen. No one welds the way that we’re welding material at the thicknesses we’re welding.
Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USASpaceX
已排期可信度 75%Launch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]
A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.
Launch Area 130, Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, People's Republic of ChinaCAS Space
已排期可信度 75%Launch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]
Share-ride of 9 commercial Earth observation and technology demonstration satellites to SSO, details TBD. Lifts off from Launch Area 130, Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, People's Republic of China to Sun-Synchronous Orbit.
已排期可信度 75%Rocket Lab's mission page and Spaceflight Now's[2] launch schedule both list the window opening at 00:15 UTC on 26 September 2026 from Launch Complex 1 (checked 2026-09-23); launches slip.
Synthetic aperture radar satellite for Japanese Earth imaging company Synspective. Lifts off from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1B, Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1, Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand to Low Earth Orbit.
Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USASpaceX
已排期可信度 77%Spaceflight Now[3] (checked 2026-09-23): "Window opens at 4:56 a.m. PDT (7:56 a.m. EDT / 1156 UTC)" on 26 September from SLC-4E, Vandenberg; launches slip.
A classified mission for the United States Space Force. It is possibly a batch of classified LEO satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite bus, based on locations of rocket stage drop zones being exact fits with previous Starlink Group 15 launches. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.
Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USASpaceX
已排期可信度 79%SpaceX[1], quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.
Kalshi
Polymarket
14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit.
The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile.
The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf.
Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.
Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USASpaceX
已排期可信度 75%Launch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]
SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Landing Zone 40.
已排期可信度 75%Launch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]
NeonSat-2 to 6 are part of the South Korean government's Earth observation micro-satellite constellation NeonSat (New-space Earth Observation Satellite). The NeonSat constellation is the first satellite system developed by the government using a mass-production approach for precise monitoring of the Korean Peninsula. Lifts off from LC-2, Naro Space Center, South Korea to Sun-Synchronous Orbit.
Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USASpaceX
预估延期10天可信度 60%Spaceflight Now's[2] schedule (checked 2026-09-23): "Falcon 9 Starlink 15-25 - 'TBD' launch time on October 10 | SLC-4E, Vandenberg"; rocketlaunch.org gives October 10, 4:00 PM UTC. No firm time yet.
A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.
已排期可信度 75%Launch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]
MMX is a Japanese scientific mission to land on Phobos, one of the two moons of Mars, to collect samples before bringing them back to Earth.
The mission includes a small French/German rover to explore the surface of Phobos. Lifts off from Yoshinobu Launch Complex LP-2, Tanegashima Space Center, Japan to Mars Orbit.
已延期延期11个月可信度 76%Date has moved, per en.wikipedia.org[1]: "…propulsion system, Mercury arrival was delayed to November 2026.[10] Overview The mission involves…"
After seven years and nine planetary flybys, the joint ESA/JAXA mission separates into two orbiters to study Mercury. Scheduled date.
预估延期6个月可信度 74%Amazon says consumer service comes 'later this year'; one report puts consumer beta in five countries in late 2026 or early 2027. The last day of 2026 is used.[1]
Amazon says it has launched enough Leo satellites for initial service and will open its satellite broadband to consumers later in 2026, after an enterprise preview that began April 8.
已排期可信度 75%An annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.
预估可信度 50%Given as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…ng on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, targeting the lunar south pole. Estimated date.…"
The first crewed landing on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972, targeting the lunar south pole. Estimated date.
预估可信度 69%No docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.
预估可信度 66%No landing date is set. The market’s heaviest year is 2029, which carries about 31 of the 44 points priced before 2030 (13% before 2029 rising to 44% before 2030), and a year-only date takes its last day. The 2027 and 2028 rungs are thinly traded and add under 3 points between them. The figures are the chance in the strike list; the order ticket reads 49% for the same before-2030 contract.[1]
Kalshi
Kalshi
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s moon-landing market priced a crewed NASA landing at 1.3% before 2027, 2.3% before 2028, 13% before 2029 and 44% before 2030 — putting the largest single year of probability, about 31 points, on 2029. The companion market had the United States as the next country to do it at 55%, with China at 28%.
Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, 2101 NASA Parkway, Houston, TX, USANASA
已排期可信度 77%Given as scheduled, per the source[1]: "NASA[3] and its international partners are planning to intentionally deorbit the orbiting laboratory around 2030 or shortly thereafter."
NASA plans to retire the 25-year-old ISS by guiding it into a remote stretch of the South Pacific using a purpose-built SpaceX deorbit vehicle.