星舰第14次飞行首次进入轨道 · Chronopin

星舰第14次飞行首次进入轨道 · Chronopin

参考资料 7可信度 86%总体可信度: 86%该图钉的来源和参考资料对其日期的支持程度。包括来源在内的 7 份资料对图钉开始和结束时间支持程度的加权平均；资料每比最新的一份旧 180 天，权重减半显示所有可信度不低于 75% 的图钉

第一项始终是图钉的来源。总体可信度是各份资料对上方所用开始和结束时间支持程度的加权平均；资料每比最新的一份旧 180 天，权重减半。

[1]90%
spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-14
spacex.com· 发布于 2026年9月20日· 开始 2026年9月28日· 占评分 14%
CNBC^[2]和NPR^[3]，2026年9月28日：中部时间上午7:48从星际基地升空（“中部时间上午7:48，星舰的Super Heavy助推器点燃了其33台火箭发动机”）；Launch Library 2记录的T-0为协调世界时12:48:59，精确到秒。
[2]92%
SpaceX launches its massive Starship rocket into orbit for the first time - CNBC
cnbc.com· 发表于 2026年9月28日· 开始 2026年9月28日 ✓· 占评分 15%
CNBC reports Starship "reached orbit around 8:15 a.m. local time" after a 7:48 a.m. local liftoff from Starbase on 28 September, with the FAA confirming the Flight 14 licence was issued on 26 September.
[3]90%
SpaceX's Starship launches on first orbital mission from Texas - NPR
npr.org· 发表于 2026年9月28日· 开始 2026年9月28日· 占评分 15%
NPR: "At 7:48 a.m. CT, Starship's Super Heavy booster ignited its 33 rocket engines to send the spacecraft on its 14th flight", adding the ship's engine failure on ascent and the go for orbit about 22 minutes in.
[4]88%
SpaceX Starship splashes down after successful 1st orbital flight test - ABC News
abcnews.com· 发表于 2026年9月28日· 占评分 15%
Post-flight report: 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed, flight cut to about three hours, ship splashdown in the Pacific north of Hawaii, booster soft splashdown in the Gulf.^[1]
[5]80%
Kalshi: SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
kalshi.com· 添加于 2026年9月20日· 占评分 14%
Kalshi runs a dated ladder on the 14th flight: before September 29 last traded at 55c and before September 30 at 70c, pricing a launch on or about September 28 as the likeliest single outcome while leaving real slip risk.

Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA

预估飞行轨迹 · 26° orbit, first revolution完整模拟

标签

更新

标记后 2 次

这个标记会跟进新闻：它显示目前已知的情况，这里列出改了什么以及起因。

已编辑2026/09/29 14:26由 @TechDesk
导语
已重写
之前
SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight lifted off from Starbase, Texas at 7:48 a.m. CT on 28 September 2026 and became the first Starship to reach orbit, after 13 earlier flights that were all suborbital. One of the ship's six engines failed during ascent; about 22 minutes into the flight SpaceX judged it safe to continue, and Starship began releasing 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first of the new generation and Starship's first operational payload. The Super Heavy booster made a soft splashdown in the Gulf off Starbase instead of a tower catch. The ship was planned to fly about six orbits at roughly 275 km over nearly 10 hours before splashing down in the Pacific west of Chile.
摘要
已重写
之前
Starship lifted off from Starbase at 7:48 a.m. CT on 28 September 2026, 33 minutes into a window that opened at 7:15, and reached orbit around 8:15 a.m. local time — the first time in 14 test flights, none of the 13 before it having been meant to
The FAA told CNBC it issued the “license authorization for the SpaceX Starship Super Heavy Flight 14 launch and reentry operations” on 26 September, two days before launch
One of the six engines on the ship failed during ascent, and about 22 minutes into the flight SpaceX decided it was safe to carry on to orbit
SpaceX began releasing the 26 Starlink V3 satellites around 8:25 a.m. local time; three of them carry cameras to record data on Starship's heat shield
The Super Heavy booster made a “soft splashdown” off Starbase, simulating an offshore landing in the Gulf rather than a return to the launch tower
The flight plan is about six orbits at roughly 170 miles over 10 hours, ending in a Pacific splashdown off Chile; SpaceX built in points where Starship could abort its orbital trajectory and return safely
One Starship can carry 60 Starlink V3 satellites, about 20 times a Falcon 9 launch, and Starship is the only vehicle able to launch the larger V3 satellites
Starship is key to SpaceX's growth after its June IPO, the largest on record, which values it at about $2 trillion; it also underpins NASA's plan to land astronauts on the Moon, with an Orion docking test planned for Artemis III late next year
Before launch, Kalshi priced liftoff before 29 September at 55% and Polymarket put a launch by 30 September at 73%
- SpaceX Starship splashes down after successful 1st orbital flight test - ABC Newsabcnews.com可信度 88%
已编辑2026/09/28 13:56由 @TechDesk
标题
Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time on Flight 14
导语
已重写
之前
14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.
开始
2026/09/28 12:152026/09/28 12:48
结束
2026/09/28 13:30无
摘要
已重写
之前
SpaceX is targeting Starship Flight 14 no earlier than 28 September 2026 from Starbase, with FAA launch licence approval for the first planned orbital profile named as the main near-term catalyst
The target date has moved: a Florida Today piece of 16 September said “SpaceX's first attempt to launch its Starship rocket into orbit could come as early as Sept. 22 in South Texas”, while the market summary updated on 20 September gives no earlier than 28 September
Kalshi's date ladder has the flight launching before 29 September at 55%, before 30 September at 70% and before 1 October at 72%, on $227,921 of volume in a market opened on 17 September 2026
Kalshi contradicts itself on the first of those: the list shows “Before Sep 29, 2026” at 55% while the order ticket beside it reads “Odds 57% chance”
Polymarket's equivalents put a launch by 26 September at 1%, by 30 September at 73% and by 31 October at 96%
On the flight itself, Polymarket prices a successful controlled splashdown of the upper stage at 83% and a Super Heavy booster explosion at 89% — though that market counts an explosion “at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing”, including a planned termination event
A chopsticks catch is all but ruled out for this flight: the booster catch trades at 1% and the Starship catch at 3%, consistent with an offshore booster landing and an ocean splashdown; the Starship-catch market is nonetheless the page's largest by volume at $462,614
The planned profile: the Block 3 Super Heavy booster and Ship 41 attempt orbital insertion at roughly 275 km, then deploy 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites — “the first revenue-generating payload” — followed by a single-Raptor deorbit burn and a controlled Pacific splashdown
Hardware upgrades for this flight address Flight 13 issues, including improved engine filtering and relight reliability on the booster plus enhanced tile retention
The stakes are framed as orbital: Starship “has not reached orbit in more than three years of flight tests. That could be about to change with flight 14”
Kalshi counts the launch date as “the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX”, and carries a notice that the series “has transitioned to the LAUNCH contract”
Polymarket counts the attempt only if the rocket lifts off the pad, with any subsequent anomaly having no bearing on the launch-date outcome, and every market resolving “No” if the 14th launch has not happened by 30 June 2027
Polymarket's page disagrees with itself about when it opened, the details panel giving 1 September 2026 and the FAQ 31 July 2026, on total volume of $703,371
- SpaceX launches its massive Starship rocket into orbit for the first time - CNBCcnbc.com可信度 92%称 2026年9月28日
- SpaceX's Starship launches on first orbital mission from Texas - NPRnpr.org可信度 90%称 2026年9月28日

评论