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Starship 发射 Starlink Group 31-1（Starship 第14次飞行）
已排期可信度 79%5天后SpaceX[1]，2026年9月22日的表述：“现计划最早于9月28日（周一）发射 Starship 第14次飞行，视监管批准情况而定。75分钟的发射窗口将于中部时间上午7:15开启。”此前已从9月22日推迟过一次，且 FAA 许可仍未落实。KalshiPolymarket两级式 Starship 运载火箭的第14次试飞。这是 Starship V3 的第3次飞行，也是 Starship 首次将卫星（一批名为 Starlink Group 31-1 的星链卫星）部署到稳定的近地轨道。 飞船预计在距地约275公里的高度飞行，用近10小时绕地球约6圈，计划在智利以西的太平洋海域溅落。 第14次飞行中助推器的主要测试目标，是成功完成发射、上升、级间分离、回推点火以及在墨西哥湾离岸落点的着陆点火。 Starship 将首次把26颗 Starlink V3 卫星送入轨道，旨在大幅提升网络容量和用户速率。每颗 Starlink V3 卫星可为星座增加 1 Tbps 的容量。从美国得州 SpaceX Starbase 的2号轨道发射台升空，前往近地轨道。助推器计划在墨西哥湾着陆。0.74- 0.70
Falcon 9 launches Crew-13
SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Landing Zone 40.0.65SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count
已排期可信度 75%99天后An annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.KalshiPolymarketKalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.0.63- 0.62
The GCAP Combat Air Demonstrator Begins Flight Testing
预估可信度 62%1.3年后A span the event runs from, per aerospacetestinginternational.com[1]: "Power-on is planned for mid-2027, aircraft ready by the end-2027 with flight test starting from early 2028", so the pin takes the first day of that period.Flight tests of the UK’s crewed sixth-generation demonstrator are due to start from early 2028, after power-on in mid-2027. More than 11,500 parts – about 90% of the aircraft’s weight – have been designed and released, with final assembly under way in Lancashire.0.60Arianespace Launches Ariane 6 on Its Maiden Flight, VA262
已确认可信度 87%2.2年前Arianespace's newsroom and Wikipedia's[2][3] Ariane flight VA262 article confirm Ariane 6's maiden flight lifted off from Kourou on 9 July 2024.Europe's new heavy-lift launcher Ariane 6, built by ArianeGroup, flew for the first time from the Guiana Space Centre. The inaugural flight met its main objectives despite an anomaly in an upper-stage auxiliary unit late in the mission.0.60Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit
预估可信度 69%1.3年后No docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.KalshiPolymarketDocking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.0.59- 0.58
ALSO TM-B Launch Edition 开始交付
已延期延期2个月可信度 77%51天前没有信息源给出具体日期。TechCrunch[2][3] 在 2026 年 7 月 31 日（周五）称交付将于“下周”开始；ALSO 于 8 月 19 日确认这款车“已开始向全美各地的客户发货”。本条目取该周的第一天，即 8 月 3 日（周一），属估计日期、按全天计；产品页本身也没有标注日期。首批 TM-B Launch Edition 电动自行车于 2026 年 8 月 3 日当周送达美国用户手中，比 ALSO 在发布会上承诺的春季晚了约六周。这款由 Rivian 分拆出的公司推出的首款 Class 3 车型单次充电可跑 100 miles，其 Top Frame 可在三秒内从载货模式切换为载人模式。$4.5K0.58- $699.000.58
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