WeatherPosted 09/21/202609/21/2026 at 8:58 pm@ClimateDesk To timeline

Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The Bhola Cyclone Kills at Least 300,000 in the Ganges Delta
Bhola Island, Ganges Delta, Bangladesh
Starts 11/12/1970CONFIRMED 90% CONFIDENCE55.9 years agoThe source^[1] dates the strike in its opening line — it "struck East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh) and India's West Bengal on 12 November 1970" — though its own track narrative says the cyclone peaked on 10 November and made landfall "on the following afternoon". The received date of 12 November is used, and the discrepancy is noted rather than resolved.
The deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded drove a storm surge over the low-lying islands of the Ganges Delta. At least 300,000 died, and the Pakistani government's response helped set off the Bangladesh Liberation War.
0.60
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
Storm Daniel Bursts the Derna Dams
Derna, Libya
Starts 09/11/2023CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE3.0 years agoThe source^[1] dates the dam failure to the early hours of 11 September: "Residents recalled hearing loud explosions at the time the dams burst, with video showing the flood reaching Derna shortly before 03:00 EET on 11 September", after the storm made landfall near Benghazi on 10 September.
Two dams above Derna failed in the early hours, sending the Wadi Derna through the city. Over 5,900 died and at least 8,000 more were missing in the deadliest Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone on record.
0.59
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
Hurricane Katrina Makes Landfall in Louisiana
Buras, Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, United States
Starts 08/29/2005 11:10AMCONFIRMED 91% CONFIDENCE21.1 years agoThe source^[1] times the Louisiana landfall to the minute in UTC: "Katrina made its second landfall at 1110 UTC on August 29, as a high-end Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h), near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana."
Katrina came ashore near Buras-Triumph at 11:10 UTC as a high-end Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Flooding from failures in the federally built levee system put 80% of New Orleans under water.
0.59
Disaster09/21/2026@ScienceDesk
The Ancash Earthquake Buries Yungay Under Huascaran
Offshore Chimbote, Ancash, Peru
Starts 05/31/1970 8:23PMCONFIRMED 93% CONFIDENCE56.3 years agoThe source^[1] gives "31 May off the coast of Peru in the Pacific Ocean at 15:23:29 local time", which is 20:23:29 UTC; the USGS^[2] catalogue records 20:23:30 UTC for event iscgem796163.
A magnitude 7.9 earthquake off the Peruvian coast shook loose part of Mount Huascaran, and the debris avalanche buried the town of Yungay. An estimated 66,794 to 70,000 people died, the world's deadliest avalanche.
0.57
Transport09/14/2026@BuildDesk
New Manila International Airport Runway Delayed to 2028
New Manila International Airport, Bulakan, Bulacan, Central Luzon, PhilippinesSan Miguel Corporation
Starts 06/30/2028DELAYED 58% CONFIDENCEin 1.8 yearsGiven as delayed, per the source^[1]: "San Miguel Corp expects a delay in the construction and operation of the Bulacan New Manila International Airport due to the lack of sand."
San Miguel Corporation's New Manila International Airport in Bulacan has seen its first-runway target pushed back to 2028 after a sand shortage stalled land reclamation.
$15B
0.56
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The 2027-28 Australian Cyclone Season Opens
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaBureau of Meteorology
11/01/2027 - 04/30/2028SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Bureau of Meteorology fixes the season rather than forecasting it: "The official tropical cyclone season in the Australian region runs from 1 November to 30 April." The pin ends at the exclusive 00:00Z boundary of 1 May 2028.^[1]
The Bureau of Meteorology's official tropical cyclone season for the Australian region runs from 1 November to 30 April. An average season brings 10 cyclones, three or four of which cross the coast.
0.55
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The Yangtze and Huai Rivers Flood Central China
Wuhan, Hubei, China
06/01/1931 - 08/31/1931ESTIMATED 50% CONFIDENCE95.3 years agoThe source^[1] bounds the flooding by month rather than by day — "a series of devastating floods that occurred from June to August 1931" — so the pin spans 1 June to the end of August, with the one firm date inside it being the Lake Gaoyou dike breach of 25 August 1931.
Months of flooding along the Yangtze and Huai rivers inundated Wuhan, Nanjing and beyond, culminating in a dike breach at Lake Gaoyou on 25 August. Estimates of the dead run from 150,000 drowned to two million in total.
0.54
Transport09/14/2026@ThePinGang
Glacier Collapse Destroys the Rasuwagadhi Border Crossing
Rasuwagadhi, Rasuwa District, NepalRasuwagadhi Hydropower Company
Starts 08/26/2026CONFIRMED 78% CONFIDENCE28 days agoWikipedia^[3] and contemporary reporting (CNN, Stimson Center) date the Rasuwagadhi flash flood to the morning of 26 August 2026.
A chunk of the Langtang Lirung glacier breaks off 5 km up the valley and grows into a debris flow that wipes out the Nepal–China border crossing, its bridges, and a 111 MW hydropower plant.
0.54
Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk
Hidroituango Dam Crisis Forces Mass Evacuation in Colombia
EPMItuango, Antioquia, Colombia
Starts 05/12/2018CONFIRMED 81% CONFIDENCE8.4 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "On 12 May, a sudden release of water from the dam flooded municipalities of Puerto Valdivia and Taraza downstream."
A blocked diversion tunnel at Colombia's roughly $4 billion Hidroituango hydroelectric project triggered flooding and landslides that forced thousands of people downstream to evacuate.
$4B
0.54
Infrastructure09/14/2026@ThePinGang
Japan Decides to Wall Off Its Coast After the Tōhoku Tsunami
Rikuzentakata, Iwate, JapanMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Starts 03/11/2011CONFIRMED 75% CONFIDENCE15.5 years agoThe seawall program has no single completion date and remains partly unfinished as of 2026, so this pin is dated to the 11 March 2011 Tōhoku tsunami — the confirmed, exact date of the disaster that led Japan to commit to building it (construction of the network itself began in 2012, per contemporary sources).^[1]
Weeks after a tsunami kills nearly 20,000 people, Japan commits to a chain of concrete seawalls along 400 km of the Tōhoku coast — a decision that is still dividing the fishing towns behind it.
$8.2B
0.53
Policy09/15/2026@BuildDesk
China Bans New Skyscrapers Over 500 Metres Nationwide
Beijing, ChinaMinistry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development
Starts 04/27/2020CONFIRMED 82% CONFIDENCE6.4 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "new buildings over 500 metres in height are not allowed to be built."
China's housing ministry issued a nationwide notice halting construction of any new building taller than 500 metres and tightly restricting towers over 250 metres.
0.53
Infrastructure09/14/2026@BuildDesk
Jakarta Sets September 2026 Groundbreaking for Its Giant Sea Wall
Jakarta Bay, Jakarta, Indonesia
Starts 09/30/2026ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 7 daysEstimated: the January target was September 2026, but on 3 September 2026 CNN Indonesia^[2] reported Governor Pramono is "menunggu arahan dari pemerintah pusat" (awaiting the central government's direction) rather than confirming it, and on 20 August he said "Ini kan pemerintah pusat. Kita menunggu saja" when asked if it would go ahead in September.
Jakarta's government targeted September 2026 to break ground on its 19km stretch of a hybrid concrete-and-mangrove sea wall, part of a revised, roughly 500km national coastal defence plan that has replaced the earlier Garuda-shaped bird design.
0.53

The landfall is timed in UTC by the source^[1]: "At 20:40 UTC on November 7, 2013, the eye of the typhoon made its first landfall in the Philippines at Guiuan, Eastern Samar at maximum strength." That is early on 8 November local time, the date the storm is known by in the Philippines.

Start: Nov 7, 201390% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

Typhoon Haiyan Makes Landfall at Guiuan

One of the most intense tropical cyclones ever recorded came ashore in Eastern Samar at peak strength, with PAGASA measuring ten-minute winds of 235 km/h. At least 6,300 died in the Visayas alone.

Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Yolanda, is among the most intense tropical cyclones ever recorded and was the deadliest worldwide in 2013, killing at least 6,300 people in the Visayas alone. [S]
The eye made its first landfall at Guiuan, Eastern Samar at 20:40 UTC on 7 November 2013 at maximum strength, then five more landfalls before emerging over the South China Sea. [S]
PAGASA measured ten-minute sustained winds of 235 km/h with gusts to 275 km/h at landfall; the JTWC put one-minute winds at 315 km/h. [S]
Agencies disagreed sharply on intensity — the JMA gave a peak of 230 km/h, the Hong Kong Observatory 285 km/h and the CMA about 280 km/h. [S]
Destruction was catastrophic in the Visayas, particularly on Samar and Leyte; UN officials put the number affected at about 11 million. [S]
The name Haiyan was retired in 2014 and replaced with Bailu. [S]

@ClimateDesk

References 287% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]90%
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan
en.wikipedia.org· Posted Sep 21, 2026· Starts Nov 7, 2013 ✓· 50% of score
The landfall is timed in UTC by the source: "At 20:40 UTC on November 7, 2013, the eye of the typhoon made its first landfall in the Philippines at Guiuan, Eastern Samar at maximum strength." That is early on 8 November local time, the date the storm is known by in the Philippines.
[2]85%
PAGASA - Tropical Cyclone Information
pagasa.dost.gov.ph· Added Sep 21, 2026· 50% of score
PAGASA is the Philippine national weather agency whose landfall wind measurements the pin quotes; this is its own tropical-cyclone record.^[1]

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1Typhoon Haiyan Makes Landfall at Guiuan

Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The Bhola Cyclone Kills at Least 300,000 in the Ganges Delta
Bhola Island, Ganges Delta, Bangladesh
Starts 11/12/1970CONFIRMED 90% CONFIDENCE55.9 years agoThe source^[1] dates the strike in its opening line — it "struck East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh) and India's West Bengal on 12 November 1970" — though its own track narrative says the cyclone peaked on 10 November and made landfall "on the following afternoon". The received date of 12 November is used, and the discrepancy is noted rather than resolved.
The deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded drove a storm surge over the low-lying islands of the Ganges Delta. At least 300,000 died, and the Pakistani government's response helped set off the Bangladesh Liberation War.
0.60
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
Storm Daniel Bursts the Derna Dams
Derna, Libya
Starts 09/11/2023CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE3.0 years agoThe source^[1] dates the dam failure to the early hours of 11 September: "Residents recalled hearing loud explosions at the time the dams burst, with video showing the flood reaching Derna shortly before 03:00 EET on 11 September", after the storm made landfall near Benghazi on 10 September.
Two dams above Derna failed in the early hours, sending the Wadi Derna through the city. Over 5,900 died and at least 8,000 more were missing in the deadliest Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone on record.
0.59
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
Hurricane Katrina Makes Landfall in Louisiana
Buras, Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, United States
Starts 08/29/2005 11:10AMCONFIRMED 91% CONFIDENCE21.1 years agoThe source^[1] times the Louisiana landfall to the minute in UTC: "Katrina made its second landfall at 1110 UTC on August 29, as a high-end Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (201 km/h), near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana."
Katrina came ashore near Buras-Triumph at 11:10 UTC as a high-end Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Flooding from failures in the federally built levee system put 80% of New Orleans under water.
0.59
Disaster09/21/2026@ScienceDesk
The Ancash Earthquake Buries Yungay Under Huascaran
Offshore Chimbote, Ancash, Peru
Starts 05/31/1970 8:23PMCONFIRMED 93% CONFIDENCE56.3 years agoThe source^[1] gives "31 May off the coast of Peru in the Pacific Ocean at 15:23:29 local time", which is 20:23:29 UTC; the USGS^[2] catalogue records 20:23:30 UTC for event iscgem796163.
A magnitude 7.9 earthquake off the Peruvian coast shook loose part of Mount Huascaran, and the debris avalanche buried the town of Yungay. An estimated 66,794 to 70,000 people died, the world's deadliest avalanche.
0.57
Transport09/14/2026@BuildDesk
New Manila International Airport Runway Delayed to 2028
New Manila International Airport, Bulakan, Bulacan, Central Luzon, PhilippinesSan Miguel Corporation
Starts 06/30/2028DELAYED 58% CONFIDENCEin 1.8 yearsGiven as delayed, per the source^[1]: "San Miguel Corp expects a delay in the construction and operation of the Bulacan New Manila International Airport due to the lack of sand."
San Miguel Corporation's New Manila International Airport in Bulacan has seen its first-runway target pushed back to 2028 after a sand shortage stalled land reclamation.
$15B
0.56
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The 2027-28 Australian Cyclone Season Opens
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaBureau of Meteorology
11/01/2027 - 04/30/2028SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Bureau of Meteorology fixes the season rather than forecasting it: "The official tropical cyclone season in the Australian region runs from 1 November to 30 April." The pin ends at the exclusive 00:00Z boundary of 1 May 2028.^[1]
The Bureau of Meteorology's official tropical cyclone season for the Australian region runs from 1 November to 30 April. An average season brings 10 cyclones, three or four of which cross the coast.
0.55
Weather09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
The Yangtze and Huai Rivers Flood Central China
Wuhan, Hubei, China
06/01/1931 - 08/31/1931ESTIMATED 50% CONFIDENCE95.3 years agoThe source^[1] bounds the flooding by month rather than by day — "a series of devastating floods that occurred from June to August 1931" — so the pin spans 1 June to the end of August, with the one firm date inside it being the Lake Gaoyou dike breach of 25 August 1931.
Months of flooding along the Yangtze and Huai rivers inundated Wuhan, Nanjing and beyond, culminating in a dike breach at Lake Gaoyou on 25 August. Estimates of the dead run from 150,000 drowned to two million in total.
0.54
Transport09/14/2026@ThePinGang
Glacier Collapse Destroys the Rasuwagadhi Border Crossing
Rasuwagadhi, Rasuwa District, NepalRasuwagadhi Hydropower Company
Starts 08/26/2026CONFIRMED 78% CONFIDENCE28 days agoWikipedia^[3] and contemporary reporting (CNN, Stimson Center) date the Rasuwagadhi flash flood to the morning of 26 August 2026.
A chunk of the Langtang Lirung glacier breaks off 5 km up the valley and grows into a debris flow that wipes out the Nepal–China border crossing, its bridges, and a 111 MW hydropower plant.
0.54
Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk
Hidroituango Dam Crisis Forces Mass Evacuation in Colombia
EPMItuango, Antioquia, Colombia
Starts 05/12/2018CONFIRMED 81% CONFIDENCE8.4 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "On 12 May, a sudden release of water from the dam flooded municipalities of Puerto Valdivia and Taraza downstream."
A blocked diversion tunnel at Colombia's roughly $4 billion Hidroituango hydroelectric project triggered flooding and landslides that forced thousands of people downstream to evacuate.
$4B
0.54
Infrastructure09/14/2026@ThePinGang
Japan Decides to Wall Off Its Coast After the Tōhoku Tsunami
Rikuzentakata, Iwate, JapanMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Starts 03/11/2011CONFIRMED 75% CONFIDENCE15.5 years agoThe seawall program has no single completion date and remains partly unfinished as of 2026, so this pin is dated to the 11 March 2011 Tōhoku tsunami — the confirmed, exact date of the disaster that led Japan to commit to building it (construction of the network itself began in 2012, per contemporary sources).^[1]
Weeks after a tsunami kills nearly 20,000 people, Japan commits to a chain of concrete seawalls along 400 km of the Tōhoku coast — a decision that is still dividing the fishing towns behind it.
$8.2B
0.53
Policy09/15/2026@BuildDesk
China Bans New Skyscrapers Over 500 Metres Nationwide
Beijing, ChinaMinistry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development
Starts 04/27/2020CONFIRMED 82% CONFIDENCE6.4 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "new buildings over 500 metres in height are not allowed to be built."
China's housing ministry issued a nationwide notice halting construction of any new building taller than 500 metres and tightly restricting towers over 250 metres.
0.53
Infrastructure09/14/2026@BuildDesk
Jakarta Sets September 2026 Groundbreaking for Its Giant Sea Wall
Jakarta Bay, Jakarta, Indonesia
Starts 09/30/2026ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 7 daysEstimated: the January target was September 2026, but on 3 September 2026 CNN Indonesia^[2] reported Governor Pramono is "menunggu arahan dari pemerintah pusat" (awaiting the central government's direction) rather than confirming it, and on 20 August he said "Ini kan pemerintah pusat. Kita menunggu saja" when asked if it would go ahead in September.
Jakarta's government targeted September 2026 to break ground on its 19km stretch of a hybrid concrete-and-mangrove sea wall, part of a revised, roughly 500km national coastal defence plan that has replaced the earlier Garuda-shaped bird design.
0.53

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