ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 174 days
Estimated: a "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. The largest step between consecutive strikes (taking the highest quote seen so far where a later strike is quoted lower) is May 1, 2027 (16%) to Jun 1, 2027 (20%), so the window opens on May 1, 2027. Quotes are bid/ask midpoints read on 27 October 2026. Estimated contract-count-times-last-price volume across active strikes is about US$109 (1,105 contracts); this is not reported cash turnover.[1] Kalshi
On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official AppsFlyer IPO confirmation at 2.5% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 20% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from May 1, 2027 to Jun 1, 2027 (16% to 20%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.