Artemis III Crewed Lunar Landing

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• Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  NASA Lands Astronauts on the Moon Again

  Launch Complex 39B, Kennedy Space Center, FLNASA

  

  Starts 12/31/2029ESTIMATED66% CONFIDENCEin 3.3 yearsNo landing date is set. The market’s heaviest year is 2029, which carries about 31 of the 44 points priced before 2030 (13% before 2029 rising to 44% before 2030), and a year-only date takes its last day. The 2027 and 2028 rungs are thinly traded and add under 3 points between them. The figures are the chance in the strike list; the order ticket reads 49% for the same before-2030 contract.^[1]

   Kalshi

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   Kalshi

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s moon-landing market priced a crewed NASA landing at 1.3% before 2027, 2.3% before 2028, 13% before 2029 and 44% before 2030 — putting the largest single year of probability, about 31 points, on 2029. The companion market had the United States as the next country to do it at 55%, with China at 28%.

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• Space09/11/2026@ThePinGang

  JUICE Arrives at Jupiter

  European Space Agency

  

  Starts 07/01/2031UNVERIFIED70% CONFIDENCEin 4.8 years

  ESA's mission to Ganymede, Callisto and Europa, ending as the first spacecraft to orbit a moon of another planet. Scheduled date.

  €1.5B

  0.69

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• Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit

  SpaceX Starbase, Boca Chica, TXSpaceX

  

  Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsNo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s^[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s^[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.

   Kalshi

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   Polymarket

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  Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.

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• Space09/20/2026@TechDesk

  Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)

  Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USASpaceX

  

  Starts 09/28/2026 12:15PMSCHEDULED79% CONFIDENCEin 5 daysSpaceX^[1], quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.

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   Polymarket

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  14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.

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• Space09/11/2026@ThePinGang

  Europa Clipper Arrives at Jupiter

  NASA

  

  Starts 04/11/2030UNVERIFIED68% CONFIDENCEin 3.6 years

  NASA's largest planetary probe begins dozens of flybys of Europa to assess whether its subsurface ocean could support life. Scheduled date.

  $4.3B

  0.68

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• Space09/20/2026@TechDesk

  Falcon 9 launches Crew-13

  Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USASpaceX

  

  Starts 10/01/2026 3:10PMSCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.^[1]

  SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Landing Zone 40.

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• Space09/11/2026@ThePinGang

  Dragonfly Launches for Titan

  NASA

  Starts 07/01/2028UNVERIFIED58% CONFIDENCEin 1.8 years

  A nuclear-powered rotorcraft that will fly between sites on Saturn's moon Titan, arriving in the 2030s. Scheduled date.

  $3.4B

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• Space09/20/2026@BuildDesk

  H3-24 launches Martian Moon eXplorer (MMX)

  Yoshinobu Launch Complex LP-2, Tanegashima Space Center, JapanMitsubishi Heavy Industries

  

  Starts 10/19/2026 7:41PMSCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 26 daysLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.^[1]

  MMX is a Japanese scientific mission to land on Phobos, one of the two moons of Mars, to collect samples before bringing them back to Earth. The mission includes a small French/German rover to explore the surface of Phobos. Lifts off from Yoshinobu Launch Complex LP-2, Tanegashima Space Center, Japan to Mars Orbit.

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• Astronomy09/11/2026@ThePinGang

  Halley's Comet Returns to Perihelion

  

  Starts 07/28/2061UNVERIFIED62% CONFIDENCEin 34.8 years

  The most famous comet swings back through the inner solar system on its 76-year orbit, having last appeared in 1986.

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• Space06/19/2017@ThePinGang

  NASA's Groundbreaking Mission to 'Touch' the Sun Will Launch in 2018

  NASA

  

  07/31/2018 - 08/20/2018CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE8.1 years agoHappened as dated, per interestingengineering.com^[1]: "…reaking Mission to ‘Touch’ the Sun Will Launch in 2018 NASA^[3] has just announced that the Solar Probe…"

  NASA's Parker Solar Probe will be the first spacecraft to fly directly into the atmosphere of the Sun and explore its brutally hot corona.

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• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Karpowership Sends the Yasin Bey on Its Maiden Voyage to Ambon

  KarpowershipAmbon, Maluku, Indonesia

  Starts 11/13/2016CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE9.9 years agoWikipedia’s^[2] MV Karadeniz Powership Yasin Bey article dates her departure from Istanbul for Ambon to 13 November 2016.

  Karpowership dispatched the floating power plant Yasin Bey from Istanbul on a four-week voyage to Ambon, Indonesia, where the 125 MW vessel would moor offshore to supply the island’s grid.

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• Aerospace09/15/2026@BuildDesk

  Arianespace Launches Ariane 5 on Its Final Flight, VA261

  ELA-3 Launch Complex, Guiana Space Centre, Kourou, French GuianaArianespace

  

  Starts 07/05/2023CONFIRMED85% CONFIDENCE3.2 years agoSpaceflight Now^[3] and ESA both confirm Ariane 5 flight VA261, the rocket's final launch, lifted off on 5 July 2023.

  Arianespace flew Europe's Ariane 5 heavy-lift rocket for the last time from the Guiana Space Centre, retiring the launcher after 27 years and 117 missions. The final flight, VA261, carried Germany's Heinrich Hertz communications satellite and France's Syracuse 4B military satellite to orbit.

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