The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
No docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[3] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[4] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.
Transfer demo NET Q1 2027, not yet scheduled; no ship-to-ship transfer yet. Used because no primary page states the current target.[1]
Polymarket breaks the same question into dated rungs (3.2% by end-2026, 51.5% by end-2027), which is what puts this pin in 2027 rather than 2026.
The crewed lunar landing market on the same exchange is the mission a Starship docking unlocks, and at 13% before 2029 it is priced years further out.[1]
The August 15, 2026 episode calls the missing orbital refuelling demo the single bottleneck holding up the revised 2028 Mars cargo window — the milestone a ship-to-ship docking clears.[1]
Ship-to-ship propellant transfer demonstration, no earlier than; not yet scheduled[2]
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most. A picture that shows something else, or shows it badly, is looked at too, and moved down or replaced.
