The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
No landing date is set. The market’s heaviest year is 2029, which carries about 31 of the 44 points priced before 2030 (13% before 2029 rising to 44% before 2030), and a year-only date takes its last day. The 2027 and 2028 rungs are thinly traded and add under 3 points between them. The figures are the chance in the strike list; the order ticket reads 49% for the same before-2030 contract.
The companion market prices the United States at 55% and China at 28.4% to be next, which is the race this landing would settle.[1]
A crewed landing needs the Starship lander refuelled in orbit, and that market’s 69% before 2028 is the nearer milestone the 2029 timing rests on.[1]
The April 16, 2026 episode marks Artemis returning safely from the first crewed Moon mission in over 50 years, the flight that precedes the landing this market is priced on.[1]
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