- Start
- Dec 31, 202750% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit
- Kalshi's market KXSTARSHIPDOCK-28 asks "Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?" and "Resolves Yes if two SpaceX Starships (any kind of Starship - e.g. tankers, depots, testing vehicles) successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit before Jan 1, 2028"[1]
- Kalshi prices it at YES 49 cents / NO 55 cents, "Odds 51% chance", on $56,866 of volume; the market opened Mar 19, 2025 at 10:00am EDT, expires early if the docking happens and otherwise closes Jan 1, 2028 at 10:00am EST[1]
- Polymarket runs a dated ladder on the same question: December 31, 2026 at 3% ($46,244 volume) and December 31, 2027 at 52% ($24,369 volume), total volume $70,613; the market opened Jun 11, 2026 with an end date of Jan 1, 2028 and an FAQ resolution date of Dec 31, 2027[2]
- Polymarket sets a tighter bar than Kalshi: the maneuver "must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds", with both free-flying vessels in stable Earth orbit at a perigee of at least 100 kilometres; a passively placed vessel, or a capsule carried up on a separate launch vehicle, does not qualify[2]
- Polymarket's market context (updated Sep 20, 2026) says "Version 3 Starships incorporate androgynous docking ports, propellant transfer hardware, and navigation sensors to enable ship-to-ship rendezvous in low Earth orbit", and that Flight 13's success in July 2026 (Starlink V3 deployment, in-space Raptor relight, intact reentry) "bolstered trader expectations for orbital refueling milestones"[2]
- The same context notes Flight 14 is "now targeted for late September 2026 pending FAA approval" and will attempt the first full orbital insertion but "will not include docking or tanker operations"; sequential launches of target and tanker vehicles plus regulatory clearances remain the near-term catalysts[2]
- As of mid-August 2026 the SpaceX Daily podcast reported that "Starship still lacks an orbital refueling demo after thirteen flights", keeping the revised 2028 Mars cargo window dependent on solving that bottleneck; the first uncrewed Mars landing target has moved from 2018 to "no earlier than 2028"[4]
References 469% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%kalshi.com/markets/kxstarshipdock/starships-dock/kxstarshipdock-28kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2027 ✓· 26% of score
No docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.
- [2]82%Polymarket: Two SpaceX Starships dock together by...?polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 26% of score
Polymarket breaks the same question into dated rungs (3.2% by end-2026, 51.5% by end-2027), which is what puts this pin in 2027 rather than 2026.
- [3]70%Kalshi: NASA lands on the moon?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 26% of score
The crewed lunar landing market on the same exchange is the mission a Starship docking unlocks, and at 13% before 2029 it is priced years further out.[1]
- [4]74%SpaceX Daily Ep 70: Starship still lacks an orbital refueling demo after thirteen flightspodcasts.apple.com· Published Aug 15, 2026· 22% of score
The August 15, 2026 episode calls the missing orbital refuelling demo the single bottleneck holding up the revised 2028 Mars cargo window — the milestone a ship-to-ship docking clears.[1]
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