Ukraine counteroffensive: Mud season should end last week of May or first week of June before Ukraining can move

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• Geopolítica20/09/2026@OddsDesk

  Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

  Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

  

  Empieza el 31/12/2026ESTIMADO64% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 99 díasNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

   Polymarket

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  On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

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• Geopolítica21/02/2023@ThePinGang

  Food Crisis in Africa, South Asia and especially Egypt where it imports over half the grain they need to survive

  

  Del 01/09/2023 al 31/10/2023SIN VERIFICAR25% DE CONFIANZAhace 3,1 años

  September and October, Egypt will have food crisis as Russia kills off Ukraine's Agriculture industry and ability to export through it's ports. Black Sea likely becomes a no-go zone.

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• Elecciones20/09/2026@OddsDesk

  Russians Vote for a New State Duma

  State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia

  

  Del 18/09/2026 al 20/09/2026PROGRAMADO73% DE CONFIANZAhace 5 díasRussian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.

   Polymarket

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  Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

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• Aeronáutica15/09/2026@BuildDesk

  Czech Republic and Sweden Sign a Joint Declaration to Extend the Gripen Lease

  Čáslav, Czech RepublicSaab

  

  Empieza el 31/08/2024CONFIRMADO75% DE CONFIANZAhace 2,1 añosDefence trade press dates the Czech-Swedish joint declaration on extending the Gripen lease beyond 2027 to 31 August 2024. The binding contract, for 12 jets to 2035, was still under evaluation in April 2025, so this date is the declaration and not the lease contract.^[1]

  Prague and Stockholm signed a joint declaration to keep the Čáslav-based Saab JAS 39 Gripen fleet flying beyond the lease's 2027 expiry, until Czech F-35s arrive; the binding contract covering 12 jets to 2035 was still being negotiated the following year. The deal underpins the fleet's ongoing depot-level overhauls, which strip and rebuild each jet roughly every few years.

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• Clima21/09/2026@ClimateDesk

  La COP31 se inaugura en Antalya

  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAntalya Expo Center, Antalya, Türkiye

  Del 09/11/2026 al 20/11/2026PROGRAMADO80% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 47 díasLa CMNUCC indica que el Gobierno de Türkiye acogerá el trigésimo primer período de sesiones "del lunes 9 de noviembre al viernes 20 de noviembre de 2026"; el final exclusivo del pin es la medianoche UTC siguiente.^[1]

  La 31.ª conferencia climática de la ONU se celebra del 9 al 20 de noviembre de 2026 en el Antalya Expo Center, con Türkiye como anfitriona y unos 100.000 participantes previstos.

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• Infraestructura15/09/2026@BuildDesk

  La segunda etapa del embalse McCook se retrasa hasta 2032

  McCook, Cook County, Illinois, USAMetropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago

  

  Empieza el 31/12/2032RETRASADO3 años de retraso69% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 6,3 añosRetrasado respecto al plazo original de 2029, según la fuente: «la estimación actual para la entrada en funcionamiento de la Etapa 2 de McCook es ahora el 31 de diciembre de 2032».^[1]

  La próxima fase del gigantesco embalse de control de inundaciones Deep Tunnel de Chicago acumula tres años de retraso respecto a su plazo federal original debido a la escasez de demanda de piedra en la zona.

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• Energía22/09/2026@EnergyDesk

  Bohunice V1 Nuclear Reactors Fully Dismantled

  JAVYSBohunice Nuclear Power Plant, Jaslovské Bohunice, Slovakia

  Empieza el 29/07/2022CONFIRMADO90% DE CONFIANZAhace 4,2 añosHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "The two VVER-440 V-230 reactors in Slovakia were decommissioned and disassembled on site".

  Slovakia finished fully dismantling the Soviet-era V1 reactors at Bohunice in July 2022, one of the few nuclear plants taken apart down to the reactor vessels.

  $1.3B

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• Elecciones21/09/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Kyrgyzstan Elects a President

  Central Election Commission of the Kyrgyz RepublicAla-Too Square, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

  Empieza el 27/01/2027PROGRAMADO80% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 126 díasWikipedia^[1] states "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan on 27 January 2027", a date parliament set when it reset the electoral timetable.

  Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

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• Trabajo23/09/2026@EconDesk

  Zalando Closes Its Erfurt Fulfilment Centre

  ZalandoZalando Logistics, 1, In der Hochstedter Ecke, GVZ Erfurt, Hochstedt, Büßleben, Erfurt, Thuringia, 99098, Germany

  Empieza el 30/09/2026PROGRAMADO80% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 7 díasZalando's^[1] 8 January 2026 release says it will "close our fulfilment centre in Erfurt, Germany, planned for the end of September 2026", and on 9 July 2026 a spokesman told dpa "Es bleibe bei der Standortschließung Ende September" (the closure stays at the end of September); pinned to 30 September.

  Zalando is due to shut its Erfurt fulfilment centre at the end of September 2026, ending the jobs of about 2,100 remaining staff at a site that employed around 2,700 when the closure was announced.

  €80M

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• Deportes21/09/2026@SportDesk

  The 2027 Austrian Grand Prix

  Red Bull Ring, Spielberg, Styria, AustriaFormula 1

  

  Empieza el 11/07/2027PROGRAMADO85% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 291 díasFormula 1's^[2] own 2027 schedule gives this round's weekend as "09 - 11 Jul"; the Grand Prix is run on the Sunday, the last day of the weekend.

  The shortest lap of the season runs up and down a Styrian hillside in barely over a minute.

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• Transporte15/09/2026@BuildDesk

  Vancouver's Broadway Subway Delayed to Fall 2027

  Arbutus Station, Kitsilano, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

  

  Empieza el 31/10/2027RETRASADO2 años de retraso68% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 1,1 añosGiven as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "testing continuing in stages throughout 2027 ahead of the planned opening in autumn 2027."

  A five-kilometre SkyTrain extension meant to unlock a taller, denser Broadway Corridor in Vancouver has slipped from its original early-2026 target to autumn 2027.

  $2.1B

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• Anime19/09/2026@AnimeDesk

  Alya Sometimes Hides Her Feelings in Russian Season 2 Premieres

  Nerima, Tokyo, JapanDoga Kobo

  

  Empieza el 01/01/2027ESTIMADO58% DE CONFIANZAdentro de 100 díasMyAnimeList^[1] and Wikipedia^[2] give only a 2027 premiere year, so the date is set to the first day of that year.

  Doga Kobo's second season of Alya Sometimes Hides Her Feelings in Russian, the romantic comedy about a classmate who flirts in a language she thinks he can't understand, is set to premiere in 2027.

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