- Start
- Feb 28, 202750% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
OpenAI Announces an IPO
- Kalshi runs a market asking "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?", listed under IPOS (Tech & Science) as series KXIPOOPENAI, event KXIPOOPENAI, with the KXIPOOPENAI-27MAY01 market shown[1]
- The prices shown do not run in order up the ladder: Before Apr 1, 2027 at 70% (Yes 39c, No 68c), Before May 1, 2027 at 49% (Yes 53c, No 55c) and Before Jun 1, 2027 at 61%, up 2 (Yes 57c, No 49c)[1]
- The trade panel for the "Before May 1, 2027" contract shows YES 53c / NO 55c and a "55% chance", against the 49% in the list, with 3.25% interest and a max payout date of Apr 30, 2027[1]
- Resolution for that contract: "Resolves Yes if OpenAI confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027", where an IPO is confirmed if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, or the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it - any of which resolves it Yes immediately, "even if the company does not start trading until after May 1, 2027"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and 5 others[1]
- The market opened Jul 30, 2025 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, paying out about 30 minutes later; it "will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Apr 30, 2027 at 11:59pm EDT"[1]
- Trading is restricted: employees of any of the source agencies and anyone holding material, non-public information on the underlying may not trade the contract, and Kalshi is "subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC"[1]
- Reporting alongside the market agrees the announcement is not imminent: the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77, published 19 September 2026, says "OpenAI's IPO is still planned for 2027 (after a brief head fake), and the company is considering raising new funds at a $1.2 trillion valuation", and asks whether shares will reach secondary platforms for retail investors[3]
References 367% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%kalshi.com/markets/kxipoopenai/when-will-openai-announce-ipo/kxipoopenaikalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Feb 28, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
A "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.
- [2]75%Kalshi: When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
Anthropic’s ladder on the same exchange is the benchmark this one is read against, and it is months ahead at 74% before January 2027.[1]
- [3]75%Access IPOs Podcast #77: Anthropic IPO Countdown — The Latest Progress + OpenAI IPO Delayedpodcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 19, 2026· 33% of score
The September 19, 2026 episode reports the OpenAI IPO as delayed while Anthropic counts down, matching a Kalshi[1][2] book that gives OpenAI only 5% before January 2027.
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