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Emerald AI, Google and NVIDIA Launch the AI Energy Management Alliance
確定確度 82%NVIDIA's[1][5] blog post is published 2026-09-16T13:00:33Z and says "Today, Emerald AI, Google and NVIDIA announced the launch of the AI Energy Management Alliance"; MT Newswires via Yahoo[2] Finance also reports the launch as Wednesday.
A coalition for AI data centers that throttle their grid draw when the power system is stressed, in exchange for faster and larger grid connections; its backers say flexibility could unlock 100 GW on the existing US grid.
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NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Debuts in MLPerf Inference v6.1
確定確度 86%MLCommons[4] published the MLPerf Inference v6.1 results on 16 September 2026 - its GlobeNewswire release is datelined 'SAN FRANCISCO, Sept. 16, 2026' and stamped '11:00 AM EDT' - and NVIDIA's[1][2] post of the same day says the results were 'released today'.
In its first peer-reviewed benchmark, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 rack posted up to 3.7x the throughput of GB300 NVL72 on Qwen3-VL and 2.5x on DeepSeek-R1, submitted in the preview category of MLCommons' MLPerf Inference v6.1 round.
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iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max Release
確定確度 89%Stated as firm, per macrumors.com[1]: pre-orders opened Saturday, September 12, with the phones "launching Friday, September 18."
Apple launches the iPhone 18 Pro ($1,199, 256GB) and iPhone 18 Pro Max ($1,299), after pre-orders opened September 12. Highlights: A20 Pro chip, variable-aperture Main camera, improved vapor chamber cooling, upgraded 5G modems, longer battery life, faster charging, a smaller Dynamic Island, and storage up to 2TB. Colors: silver, black, glacier, and burgundy.
$1.2K
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Apple Watch Ultra 4 Release
確定確度 85%Stated as firm, per macrumors.com[1]: pre-orders opened September 9 ahead of a stated launch date of September 18, 2026.
Apple Watch Ultra 4 launches at $799, after pre-orders opened September 9. Apple claims up to two days of battery life, or up to 18 hours of workout tracking with full GPS and heart rate monitoring (45 hours in extended workout mode). Also new: the S11 chip, a redesigned health sensing system, a Readiness feature, Sound Recognition and Live Rewind, and a Siri Recap feature launching in beta later in 2026. Available in Black and Natural titanium with new band colors.
$799.00
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Apple iPhone 18 Pro
確定確度 90%Availability date from Apple's[1][2][3][4] own newsroom announcement (https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/apple-debuts-iphone-18-pro-and-iphone-18-pro-max/): pre-orders from Saturday, September 12, 2026, 'with availability beginning Friday, September 18'. September 18, 2026 is the on-sale day.
Flagship iPhone with an A20 Pro chip, variable aperture camera, and improved battery life.
$1.2K
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Apple Watch Series 12 Release
確定確度 88%Stated as firm, per macrumors.com[1]: pre-orders began September 9 ahead of a stated launch date of September 18, 2026.
Apple Watch Series 12 launches at $399, after pre-orders opened September 9. Highlights: S11 chip, a redesigned health sensing system for more accurate heart rate tracking, a new Readiness feature, Sound Recognition and Live Rewind audio intelligence, Ceramic Shield on aluminum models, and an updated Health app with Health Age and a Longevity tab. Available in aluminum, titanium, and ceramic finishes.
$399.00
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AirPods 5 Release
確定確度 88%Stated as firm, per macrumors.com[1]: pre-orders opened September 9 ahead of a stated release date of "Friday, September 18."
AirPods 5 launch at $129 ($149 for the Premium model), after pre-orders opened September 9. ANC removes up to 50% more external noise than AirPods 4, thanks to a redesigned acoustic architecture and updated Adaptive EQ. Also new: improved Transparency mode, Adaptive Audio, Conversation Awareness, and Live Translation support on compatible iPhones. The $149 Premium model adds swipe volume controls, up to 5 hours of ANC listening time (22 with the case), and a wireless charging case with Apple Watch and Qi support.
$129.00
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Apple iPhone 18 Pro Max
確定確度 85%Same launch as iPhone 18 Pro. Apple's[1][2][3] newsroom announcement (https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/apple-debuts-iphone-18-pro-and-iphone-18-pro-max/) states pre-orders from Saturday, September 12, 2026 'with availability beginning Friday, September 18'. September 18, 2026 is the on-sale day.
Larger Pro iPhone model with a physically larger battery for extended runtime.
$1.3K
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Anthropic、ベイエリアでウェット生物実験室の運営を認める
確定確度 93%ソースページ自体の日付は2026年9月22日で、先行報道をまとめた記事であるため、出来事の日付は基になった2本の報道による。ロイターは2026年9月18日3:02 AM PDTに独占記事を、TechCrunch[3]は同日4:13 PM PDTに確認を報じた——「Anthropic[4][5][6]はベイエリアにウェット生物実験室を持ち、そこでAIモデルを使って物理的な実験を実行できると、TechCrunchに確認した」。このピンはラボが明かされた日を指す。Anthropicは開設時期を示さず、所在地もベイエリアという以上には明かさなかったため、ピンは同社本社のある都市サンフランシスコに置いている。
Anthropicは、AIモデルが物理的な実験を実行できるウェット生物実験室をベイエリアで運営していることを認めた。同社のライフサイエンス責任者エリック・カウデラー・エイブラムス氏は、現時点で実際のラボ作業を行っていると述べている。施設の焦点は創薬ではなく基礎生物学だとしており、創薬分野ではNovo Nordiskなど製薬企業の顧客と提携している。
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Anthropic Expected to Release Its Next Claude Opus Model
推定確度 65%No official date: September 21 is the day Polymarket's[1][2] per-day market prices highest, at 31% on its outcome row (the page header reads 30.5%), with September 22 at 25% and September 24 at 15%, and “No release by September 30” at 22%. The figures are the chance on each row, not the Buy Yes or Buy No prices in cents beside them.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.
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NVIDIA、AIファクトリーの電力・冷却を認定する「DSX Ready」を開始
確定確度 83%NVIDIA[1][2][5]のブログ記事は2026-09-21T18:00:07Zに公開され、「NVIDIA is introducing NVIDIA DSX Ready」と記載。ServeTheHome[3]は「DSX Readyプログラムは本日より稼働している」と伝えている。
NVIDIAのDSX AIファクトリー・リファレンスデザインに適合するパートナー製品の認定プログラム。Hitachi Energy、LG Energy Solution、Teslaのバッテリー蓄電システムと、LG Electronics、LiquidStack、Vertivの冷却液分配ユニットで始動する。
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Apple Mac mini (M6 or M5 Pro)
確定確度 82%Availability date from Apple's[1][2][3] own newsroom announcement (https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/08/apple-unveils-a-more-powerful-mac-mini-featuring-the-all-new-m6-and-m5-pro/): pre-orders from August 25, 2026, and it 'will begin arriving to customers, and in Apple Store locations and Apple Authorized Resellers, starting September 22'. September 22, 2026 is the shipping/on-sale day.
Compact desktop with new Apple silicon promising up to 4x faster AI performance.
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Claude Opus 5.5 リリース
確定確度 90%Fable 5.1の発表とは異なり、このページには日付が明記されている。ヘッダーには「Claude[2] Opus 5.5 September 22, 2026」とある。TechCrunch[3]のバイライン（「9:30 AM PDT · September 22, 2026」「火曜日にリリース」）とXDAの2026-09-22T16:44Zのタイムスタンプも一致しており、出典の記述はそのまま維持され、2本の報道がそれを裏づけている。
Anthropicが新しいClaude 5.5ファミリーの第1弾となるClaude Opus 5.5を公開。多くの業務でClaude Fable 5.1と同等の性能を発揮しつつ、実行コストはOpus 5より40%安いとしている。
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Falcon 9、USSF-385を打ち上げ
予定確度 77%Spaceflight Now[3]（2026-09-23確認）：9月26日、ヴァンデンバーグのSLC-4Eから「打ち上げウィンドウは午前4時56分PDT（東部夏時間午前7時56分／1156 UTC）に開く」。打ち上げは延期される場合がある。
アメリカ宇宙軍の機密ミッション。ロケット各段の落下区域が過去のStarlink Group 15の打ち上げと完全に一致することから、SpaceXのStarshield衛星バスをベースとした機密の低軌道衛星群とみられる。米カリフォルニア州ヴァンデンバーグ宇宙軍基地のスペース・ローンチ・コンプレックス4E（SLC-4E）から地球低軌道へ打ち上げられる。第1段はドローン船「Of Course I Still Love You」への着陸を予定している。
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OpenAI、旧GPTモデルのスナップショット4件を提供終了
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$699.00
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$449.00
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Sonos Play (Sand)
推定確度 74%Gear Patrol[2][4] (https://www.gearpatrol.com/audio/sonos[1][3][5]-play-speaker-sand/) reports the sand finish revealed 2 September 2026 with pre-orders opening immediately and shipping 'at the end of the month'. No exact ship day is published, so the pin is dated to the last day of September 2026 as an estimate.
Portable wireless speaker now available in a new sand finish.
$299.00
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HPE Hosts Its Networking Investor Day in Sunnyvale
Juniper Building A, 1133 Innovation Way, Sunnyvale, California 94089, United States
Hewlett Packard Enterprise…
予定確度 84%HPE's[1][2][3][4][5] release: "HPE (NYSE: HPE) will host its Networking Investor Day on September 30, 2026, in Sunnyvale, California ... The webcast will begin Wednesday, September 30, at 10:30 a.m. CT (8:30 a.m. PT)", which is 15:30 UTC; HPE's investor events page gives the same "Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30AM PT".
Rami Rahim and his HPE Networking leadership team set out the strategy and growth plans of the business built around Juniper, now $2.9 billion of revenue a quarter, in a webcast from Sunnyvale starting at 8:30 a.m. PT.
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Sable、Santa Ynez Unitで3基目となるHondoプラットフォームを再稼働
延期3 か月遅れ確度 68%延期。offshore-energy.biz[1][4]（2026年8月12日）によると、Sableは4月に示した6月の目標の後、「Hondoプラットフォームが2026年9月に稼働すると見込んでいる」。月しか示されていないため、その月の最終日とした。
Sable Offshoreは、カリフォルニア沖のHondoプラットフォームが2026年9月に稼働を再開すると見込んでいる。Santa Ynez Unitのプラットフォームとしては、HeritageとHarmonyに続き3基目の再稼働となる。Hondoでは硫黄分の少ない原油が生産される見通しで、油田全体の硫黄含有量は通常の水準に戻る見込みだ。
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Inglewood Starts Building Its Downtown Transit Hubs for 2028
City of Inglewood
延期9 か月遅れ確度 40%The City's release says only "Construction begins this fall," so the pin uses the start of that autumn.[1]
The rephased Inglewood Transit Connector begins with three mobility hubs holding more than 1,000 parking stalls, event-day bus lanes, a rebuilt Market Street and a pedestrian bridge over Florence Avenue to the Metro K Line station, all due by 2028. The automated people mover it grew out of is deferred, with the right-of-way preserved at Market and Manchester.
$261M
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OpenAI Retires GPT-5.4-Cyber
予定確度 80%OpenAI's[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-09-11, gives the shutdown date as 1 October 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off GPT-5.4-Cyber on 1 October 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-5.4-cyber.
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Googlebook Laptops Go On Sale
予定確度 81%Google's announcement says "Devices arrive on shelves starting October 4 in the U.S., and October 5 in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, France, Germany, and Australia", with pre-orders "now open" from September 21.[1]
Google's Googlebook, a new premium laptop category built on Android and designed for Gemini, reaches US shelves on October 4, 2026, from $899, after pre-orders opened on September 21.
$899.00
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Microsoft's Windows and Surface Event With NVIDIA's Jensen Huang
予定確度 83%Given as scheduled, per windowscentral.com[1]: "Microsoft just announced a Windows[6] and Surface event for October 7, 2026. The event will be held in San Francisco... It will start at 10 AM PT / 1 PM ET."; The Verge[4] printed Microsoft's invite with the same date and time.
Satya Nadella, Pavan Davuluri and NVIDIA's Jensen Huang take the stage in San Francisco at 10 AM PT for Microsoft's first major Windows event in more than two years, billed as a conversation on "how local AI will shape the next chapter of the PC." Pricing and availability for the RTX Spark-powered Surface Laptop Ultra are expected.
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Falcon 9 launches Starlink Group 15-25
推定10 日遅れ確度 60%Spaceflight Now's[2] schedule (checked 2026-09-23): "Falcon 9 Starlink 15-25 - 'TBD' launch time on October 10 | SLC-4E, Vandenberg"; rocketlaunch.org gives October 10, 4:00 PM UTC. No firm time yet.
A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.
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iPhone Duo 発売
Appleが折りたたみ式のiPhone Duoを発売。価格は256GBモデルで1,999ドル（最大2TBまで用意）で、予約は10月16日に開始された。7.6インチの内側ディスプレイと5.4インチの外側ディスプレイ、100点以上の精密部品からなる専用ヒンジ、折り目を目立たなくするナノテクスチャとマイクロレンズ仕上げ、4800万画素のFusionと超広角のデュアルカメラに加えディスプレイ内蔵のFaceTimeカメラ、C2モデムを備えたA20 Proチップ、両画面併用で最大24時間駆動のデュアルバッテリー、IP68の耐水性能、チタニウムフレーム、Ceramic Shieldを搭載する。
$2K
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OpenAI Retires 17 Legacy GPT Model Snapshots
予定確度 80%OpenAI's[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-04-22, gives the shutdown date as 23 October 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 17 models and endpoints on 23 October 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: gpt-3.5-turbo-0125, gpt-4-0613, gpt-4-1106-preview, gpt-4-turbo, gpt-4.1-nano, gpt-4o-2024-05-13, gpt-image-1, o1-2024-12-17, o1-pro-2025-03-19, o3-mini-2025-01-31, ft-o4-mini-2025-04-16, o4-mini-2025-04-16 and 5 more.
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Alphabet Q3 2026 Results and Earnings Call
推定確度 71%Alphabet has not announced the Q3 date (it gave two weeks' notice for Q2: 'Wednesday, July 22, at 1:30pm Pacific Time'); Wall Street Horizon[2] lists Q3 2026 as 'UNCONFIRMED for Wednesday 10/28/2026 After Market' and Alphabet's last four reports were all Wednesdays, so Wednesday 28 October at 1:30 p.m. PDT (20:30 UTC) is estimated. A search summary citing TipRanks says 27 October (a Tuesday); Zacks/Nasdaq's algorithm says 4 November.
Alphabet is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results after the close and hold its earnings call at 1:30 p.m. PT, most likely on Wednesday 28 October; Alphabet has not yet announced the date. Analysts expect about $126.9 billion in revenue.
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Squadron 42 Preview Event Rumored for October Ahead of 2027 Launch
推定確度 69%The preview event is October 2026, not October 2027. Gameranx[1] (9 September 2026) reports creators invited to an event 'this October', and IGN[4] reports CIG will preview the game with creators and early backers in October and announce a concrete release date shortly after, with the game itself due in the second half of 2027. No day is given, so this is dated to the last day of that October as an estimate.
Cloud Imperium Games has reportedly invited content creators to an NDA-bound October preview event for Squadron 42, the long-in-development Star Citizen campaign now targeting a Q2 2027 release after repeated delays.
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Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model
推定確度 67%Google has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.
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LA's $14BN Airport Upgrade
延期3 年遅れ確度 65%Date has moved, per the source[1]: "the posted date is now October 2026. That probably won’t happen either" - the APM has already blown past targets of 2023, January 2026 and the June 2026 World Cup.
LAX’s $3.34BN Automated People Mover - the driverless train meant to finally connect the airport’s terminals to LA’s Metro system - has slipped years past its original target and still has no confirmed opening date.
$3.3B
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California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
予定確度 70%Polymarket's[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
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