地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
開始 2026/10/09 9:00予定確度 86%16 日後NobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.79
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Chemistry Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/07 9:45予定確度 87%14 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Wednesday, 7 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry from its Session Hall at Frescati in Stockholm, a day after the physics prize.
0.77
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Physics Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/06 9:45予定確度 87%13 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Tuesday, 6 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics from its Session Hall at Frescati in Stockholm. The prize may be split between up to three laureates.
0.77
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Economic Sciences Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/12 9:45予定確度 87%19 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Monday, 12 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, closing the 2026 announcement season. It is the only one of the six not established by Alfred Nobel's will.
0.75
文学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Literature Laureate
Swedish AcademyBörssalen, Svenska Akademien, Källargränd 4, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/08 11:00予定確度 87%15 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Thursday, 8 October, 13:00 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Swedish Academy announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature from the Börssalen in Stockholm's old stock exchange, where its permanent secretary opens the doors to say the name aloud.
0.74
スポーツ2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The 2026 Ballon d'Or Is Awarded in London
London Palladium, 8 Argyll Street, London W1F 7TF, United Kingdom
開始 2026/10/26予定確度 71%33 日後Yahoo^[3] Sports and Athlon both give Monday 26 October 2026 for the ceremony, and Polymarket's^[2] Ballon d'Or market ends 26 October, so the date is firm even though organisers had not formally confirmed the venue.
Kalshi
Polymarket
For the first time the Ballon d'Or leaves Paris: the 2026 ceremony is on Monday 26 October 2026 in London, marking 70 years since the first award. On 20 September 2026 Harry Kane was a clear favourite on both exchanges at 55-56%, with Lamine Yamal at 22% and Kylian Mbappé at 8%.
0.60
地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
開始 2027/01/01予定確度 75%100 日後UN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.59
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2027/01/03予定確度 72%102 日後The Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.59
半導体2026/09/23@TechDesk
TSMC 2026 North America Technology Symposium in Santa Clara
TSMC…Santa Clara Convention Center, 5001 Great America Parkway, Santa Clara, CA 95054, United States
開始 2026/04/22 15:30確定確度 85%154 日前TSMC's^[1] release is datelined "SANTA CLARA, CA, Apr. 22, 2026" and says it "today debuted" A13 at the symposium; GUC's event page gives "8:30 a.m. - 5:30 p.m. (PDT, UTC-7)" at the Santa Clara Convention Center.
TSMC's largest annual customer event opened its 2026 series at the Santa Clara Convention Center on 22 April, where it debuted the A13 process, previewed A12 and introduced N2U.
0.58
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
開始 2026/10/27予定確度 72%34 日後Polymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
0.58
カンファレンス2026/09/23@TechDesk
Microsoft Ignite 2026 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco
Microsoft…George R Moscone Convention Center, Howard Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, United States
2026/11/17〜2026/11/20予定確度 82%55 日後Microsoft's^[1] Ignite site reads "Nov 17-20, 2026 San Francisco, Moscone^[2] Center"; its agenda ("Agenda: November 16-20") adds badge pick-up and pre-day sessions on Monday 16 November, so the conference itself is 17-20 November, all day.
Microsoft's flagship conference for IT pros, developers, security and business leaders runs 17-20 November 2026 at San Francisco's Moscone Center and online, with Satya Nadella leading the featured speakers.
0.58
ゲーム2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The Game Awards 2026 Names Its Game of the Year
Peacock Theater, 777 Chick Hearn Court, Los Angeles, CA 90015, USA
開始 2026/12/10予定確度 78%78 日後The Game Awards^[2]' own announcement and the Peacock Theater's^[3] event listing both give Thursday 10 December 2026, and Polymarket's market on the same award ends that night.
Kalshi
The Game Awards return to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday 10 December 2026. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had Grand Theft Auto VI at 69% for Game of the Year, well clear of Resident Evil Requiem at 14% and Phantom Blade Zero at 7%.
0.58

The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Monday, 5 October, 11:30 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]

開始: 2026年10月5日確度 75%出典：出典

The Nobel Assembly Names the 2026 Medicine Laureates

The Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine from Wallenbergsalen in the Nobel Forum, opening Nobel week. The announcement is broadcast live and the laureates are usually telephoned only minutes beforehand.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is announced on Monday 5 October 2026 by the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet, the first of the six 2026 Nobel announcements, which run 5–12 October^[2][3]
Both nobelprize.org pages time it as “11:30 CEST at the earliest”, keeping the hedge; only the peace prize announcement is given a time without it^[2][3]
The Nobel Foundation press release gives the venue in full as the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet, Wallenbergsalen, Nobel Forum, Nobels vag 1, Solna, and names www.nobelprizemedicine.org as the prize's site^[3]
The YouTube description is less precise on place, saying only that the prize “will be announced at the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, Sweden”^[1]
The announcement is broadcast live: “All of the prize announcements will be broadcast live on the official digital channels of the Nobel Prize”, with a YouTube live stream listed for each^[2][3]
The pin's source is that live stream page, titled “Announcement of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine” on the Nobel Prize channel, published 2026-09-14 and tagged #NobelPrize^[1]
No laureates are named: the live stream page gives no laureate names and no announcement date beyond its own publication timestamp^[1]
The press release setting the 2026 dates and venues is dated 2 February 2026, and says media wishing to attend “should apply to the respective prize-awarding institution in the early fall”^[3]
The announcement follows a selection year that opens with nominations in September, closes them at midnight on 31 January, runs evaluation from February to September and ends with the institutions' final vote in October^[2]
The laureates receive their medals, prize money and diplomas on Nobel Day, 10 December, in Stockholm and Oslo^[2]

@ScienceDesk

参考資料 3確度 87%

最初の項目は常にピンの出典です。全体の確度は、各資料が上記の開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均です。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに、重みは半分になります。

[1]75%
youtube.com/live/qGPpW0hAaaY
youtube.com· 投稿 2026年9月20日· 開始 2026年10月5日 ✓· スコアの 41%
The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Monday, 5 October, 11:30 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.
[2]95%
Prize announcement dates - NobelPrize.org
nobelprize.org· 追加 2026年9月20日· スコアの 41%
The Nobel Foundation's own schedule page, listing each 2026 prize with its day, hour and awarding institution.^[1]
[3]95%
The 2026 Nobel Prize announcements - press release from the Nobel Foundation
nobelprize.org· 公開 2026年2月2日· スコアの 17%
The February 2026 press release in which the prize-awarding institutions set out each announcement date, hour, hall and street address.^[1]

修正を提案

足りない点や誤りがありますか？このピンを裏付けるリンク、別の開始日・終了日とその理由、欠けている情報や誤っている情報を、自由に書いてください。AIがこのピンの出典と照らし合わせ、より良い情報源を探し、裏付けとなるページがあれば参考資料として追加します。ピン自身の出典が引き続き最も重視されます。

スレッド

このピンに返信

1The Nobel Assembly Names the 2026 Medicine Laureates

地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
開始 2026/10/09 9:00予定確度 86%16 日後NobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.79
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Chemistry Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/07 9:45予定確度 87%14 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Wednesday, 7 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Chemistry from its Session Hall at Frescati in Stockholm, a day after the physics prize.
0.77
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Physics Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/06 9:45予定確度 87%13 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Tuesday, 6 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics from its Session Hall at Frescati in Stockholm. The prize may be split between up to three laureates.
0.77
科学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Royal Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Economic Sciences Laureates
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesSession Hall, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Lilla Frescativägen 4A, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/12 9:45予定確度 87%19 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Monday, 12 October, 11:45 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, closing the 2026 announcement season. It is the only one of the six not established by Alfred Nobel's will.
0.75
文学2026/09/20@ScienceDesk
The Swedish Academy Names the 2026 Literature Laureate
Swedish AcademyBörssalen, Svenska Akademien, Källargränd 4, Stockholm, Sweden
開始 2026/10/08 11:00予定確度 87%15 日後The Nobel Foundation's press release sets it for "Thursday, 8 October, 13:00 CEST at the earliest", so the hour can slip later in the day.^[1]
The Swedish Academy announces the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature from the Börssalen in Stockholm's old stock exchange, where its permanent secretary opens the doors to say the name aloud.
0.74
スポーツ2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The 2026 Ballon d'Or Is Awarded in London
London Palladium, 8 Argyll Street, London W1F 7TF, United Kingdom
開始 2026/10/26予定確度 71%33 日後Yahoo^[3] Sports and Athlon both give Monday 26 October 2026 for the ceremony, and Polymarket's^[2] Ballon d'Or market ends 26 October, so the date is firm even though organisers had not formally confirmed the venue.
Kalshi
Polymarket
For the first time the Ballon d'Or leaves Paris: the 2026 ceremony is on Monday 26 October 2026 in London, marking 70 years since the first award. On 20 September 2026 Harry Kane was a clear favourite on both exchanges at 55-56%, with Lamine Yamal at 22% and Kylian Mbappé at 8%.
0.60
地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
開始 2027/01/01予定確度 75%100 日後UN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.59
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2027/01/03予定確度 72%102 日後The Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.59
半導体2026/09/23@TechDesk
TSMC 2026 North America Technology Symposium in Santa Clara
TSMC…Santa Clara Convention Center, 5001 Great America Parkway, Santa Clara, CA 95054, United States
開始 2026/04/22 15:30確定確度 85%154 日前TSMC's^[1] release is datelined "SANTA CLARA, CA, Apr. 22, 2026" and says it "today debuted" A13 at the symposium; GUC's event page gives "8:30 a.m. - 5:30 p.m. (PDT, UTC-7)" at the Santa Clara Convention Center.
TSMC's largest annual customer event opened its 2026 series at the Santa Clara Convention Center on 22 April, where it debuted the A13 process, previewed A12 and introduced N2U.
0.58
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
開始 2026/10/27予定確度 72%34 日後Polymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
0.58
カンファレンス2026/09/23@TechDesk
Microsoft Ignite 2026 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco
Microsoft…George R Moscone Convention Center, Howard Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, United States
2026/11/17〜2026/11/20予定確度 82%55 日後Microsoft's^[1] Ignite site reads "Nov 17-20, 2026 San Francisco, Moscone^[2] Center"; its agenda ("Agenda: November 16-20") adds badge pick-up and pre-day sessions on Monday 16 November, so the conference itself is 17-20 November, all day.
Microsoft's flagship conference for IT pros, developers, security and business leaders runs 17-20 November 2026 at San Francisco's Moscone Center and online, with Satya Nadella leading the featured speakers.
0.58
ゲーム2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The Game Awards 2026 Names Its Game of the Year
Peacock Theater, 777 Chick Hearn Court, Los Angeles, CA 90015, USA
開始 2026/12/10予定確度 78%78 日後The Game Awards^[2]' own announcement and the Peacock Theater's^[3] event listing both give Thursday 10 December 2026, and Polymarket's market on the same award ends that night.
Kalshi
The Game Awards return to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Thursday 10 December 2026. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had Grand Theft Auto VI at 69% for Game of the Year, well clear of Resident Evil Requiem at 14% and Phantom Blade Zero at 7%.
0.58

似たピン

参考資料 3確度 87%

修正を提案

コメント

スレッド

似たピン