Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan

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• 地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?

  Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan

  

  開始 2026/12/31推定確度 63%99 日後Nothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.^[1]

   Polymarket

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  Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  A State Arrival Ceremony for Xi Jinping on the South Lawn

  South Lawn, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House

  

  開始 2026/09/24予定確度 80%明日The White House^[1] programme states that "on Thursday morning, September 24, the President and First Lady will host a State Arrival Ceremony". It gives the day but no hour, so the pin is all-day on 24 September.

  479 military personnel from every branch, an Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a Rose Garden military review and a flyover by a B-2 and four F-22s: the formal welcome for Xi Jinping on the morning of 24 September 2026, his first White House arrival ceremony since 2015.

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  トランプ氏、アンドルーズ統合基地で習近平氏を出迎え

  Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House

  

  開始 2026/09/23 22:30予定確度 83%今日9月23日の大統領日程には「中華人民共和国主席との到着式典」として「6:00 PM ― 大統領がホワイトハウスを出発し、アンドルーズ統合基地へ向かう」と記載されている。APは習氏と彭麗媛氏が「水曜夜にアンドルーズ統合基地に到着する見込み」と伝えている。東部時間18:30は6 PM出発からの推定で、SCMP^[9]が先に伝えた「午後4時ごろ」に代わるもの。

  トランプ大統領は2026年9月23日午後4時ごろ、アンドルーズ統合基地の駐機場で習近平国家主席と彭麗媛夫人を出迎える。米大統領が外国元首を空港で迎えることはほとんどない異例の待遇だ。9月23〜25日の国賓訪問の幕開けで、習氏のワシントン訪問は2015年以来となる。

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Biden and Xi Meet at Filoli

  Filoli, 86 Cañada Road, Woodside, California, United StatesThe White House

  

  開始 2023/11/15確定確度 78%2.9 年前The White House readout is dated 15 November 2023 and states that Biden "today held a Summit with President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China (PRC), in Woodside, California".^[1]

  Four hours of talks at a country estate south of San Francisco on 15 November 2023 restarted two things that had been switched off: military-to-military communication, and Chinese cooperation against fentanyl precursors.

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Pelosi Lands in Taipei

  Taipei Songshan Airport, Songshan District, Taipei, TaiwanUnited States House of Representatives

  

  開始 2022/08/02確定確度 80%4.1 年前The delegation's own statement is datelined "Taipei, Taiwan – August 2, 2022" and was "issued this statement upon arrival in Taiwan". No hour is given, so the pin is an all-day one; the landing was late on 2 August local time, which is the same UTC day.^[1]

  The first Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years touched down in Taipei on the night of 2 August 2022. Within hours the PLA's Eastern Theater Command began live-fire exercises around the island, opening the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

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• 交通2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  Thailand-China Railway's First Phase Pushed to 2030

  Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

  

  開始 2030/12/31延期4 年遅れ確度 66%4.3 年後Given as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "Thailand targets 2030 completion of first phase of high-speed rail link to China".

  The Bangkok-to-Nakhon Ratchasima leg of Thailand's high-speed rail link to China, once due by 2026, is now targeted for 2030 after years of delays.

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  The United States and China Issue the Shanghai Communiqué

  Jinjiang Hotel, Maoming South Road, Shanghai, ChinaUS Department of State

  

  開始 1972/02/27確定確度 87%54.6 年前Foreign Relations of the United States prints the joint statement under the dateline "Shanghai, February 27, 1972". It is often dated 28 February, the day it reached readers in the United States and the visit's last day; this pin follows the document's own dateline.^[1]

  At the end of Nixon's visit the two governments published a joint statement setting out, separately, what each believed about Taiwan. Washington said it 'acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China' — the sentence US policy has rested on ever since.

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• 半導体2026/09/23@LawDesk

  Supreme Court Makes the TSMC 2nm Leak Sentences Final

  Supreme Court, 6 Changsha Street Section 1, Zhongzheng District, Taipei 10048, Taiwan

  開始 2026/07/30確定確度 88%55 日前Focus Taiwan^[1] (CNA^[4]), 30 July 2026: 'The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected appeals by two former ... TSMC employees ... making their sentences final'; PTS^[2] quotes the court's deputy spokesman on the ruling of the 30th. No time is given, so it is an all-day date.

  Taiwan's Supreme Court dismissed the appeals of Chen Li-ming and Chen Wei-chieh, making their 10- and 6-year sentences for leaking TSMC's 2nm and 14nm secrets final; both go straight to prison.

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• 半導体2026/09/20@BuildDesk

  TSMC's Second Arizona Fab Starts Mass Production

  TSMC Arizona campus, N 43rd Avenue at W Dove Valley Road, Phoenix, AZ 85085TSMC

  

  開始 2027/07/01推定確度 72%281 日後TSMC^[2] said it had "pushed up the mass production schedule for its second wafer fab in the U.S. state of Arizona to the second half of 2027 from the previously planned 2028," naming a half-year rather than a day.

  The second fab on TSMC's north Phoenix campus, whose structure was finished in 2025, is due to begin high-volume manufacturing in the second half of 2027 - a year earlier than the schedule the company had previously given. Chairman C.C. Wei gave the pulled-forward date on 15 January 2026; the campus is the centrepiece of a $165 billion Arizona investment.

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• アニメ2026/09/15@AnimeDesk

  False Memory (2026) Premieres

  Beijing, ChinaStudio Tumble

  

  開始 2026/08/02確定確度 92%86%全 7 話52 日前Release date confirmed on the title's own MyAnimeList^[1] listing.

  False Memory (2026), a Chinese donghua original streamed on Bilibili, follows Guan Chao's search for the "Burning Stone" needed to power his Time Gun, an accidental fall into the Memory Administration Bureau, and the fights to recover corrupted memories with fellow administrators.

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• 地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  The United States and China Establish Diplomatic Relations

  Embassy of the United States, Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang, Beijing, ChinaUS Department of State

  

  開始 1979/01/01確定確度 82%47.7 年前The Office of the Historian states that "the Joint Communiqué stated that the United States would begin official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1, 1979, and that the two countries would open Embassies on March 1". The agreement itself was announced on 15 December 1978.^[1]

  From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.

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• 半導体2026/09/23@TechDesk

  TSMC's 1.6nm-Class A16 Process Enters Volume Production

  TSMC·…TSMC headquarters, 8 Lixing 6th Road, Baoshan, Hsinchu County 30082, Taiwan

  開始 2027/12/31延期12 か月遅れ確度 67%1.3 年後TSMC's^[2][5] Kevin Zhang told Tom's Hardware "A16 will be ready for production in 2026... we expect volume production to begin in 2027", and TSMC's roadmap slide lists A16 under 2027; with no quarter named, the year's last day stands in.

  A16, TSMC's first node with Super Power Rail backside power delivery, is expected to reach volume production in 2027, a year after the 2026 production TSMC planned when it unveiled the node.

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