経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
Government Funding Runs Out Again on December 11
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
開始 2026/12/11予定確度 86%79 日後H.R. 6500 funds federal agencies through 11 December 2026, so the continuing resolution expires at the end of that day.^[1]
The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.
0.75
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
2026/10/01〜2027/09/30予定確度 84%8 日後The US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
0.69
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
Half the Government Shuts Down for Four Days
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
2026/01/31〜2026/02/03確定確度 87%235 日前The funding lapse ran from 31 January 2026, when the continuing resolution expired, to 3 February 2026, when the House passed the package 217-214 and the President signed it.^[1]
A stopgap covering six of the twelve appropriations bills expired on 31 January 2026, closing roughly half of federal agencies until the House passed a funding package 217-214 on 3 February.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
2027/10/01〜2028/09/30予定確度 83%来年The federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.^[1]
The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.
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エネルギー2026/09/22@EnergyDesk
Ford Signs the Law That Creates the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The White HouseWhite House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20500, United States
開始 1975/12/22確定確度 92%50.8 年前The American Presidency Project dates Ford's signing statement to 22 December 1975, and the Act itself is P.L. 94-163, enacted that day.^[1]
Two years after the Arab oil embargo, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act set up a federal emergency oil stockpile and gave the President the power to order it sold when supply is severely interrupted. Ford called the bill imperfect but signed it anyway, to end "the long debate over national energy policy".
0.64
法律2026/09/15@BuildDesk
Biden Signs the $1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
The White House, Washington, DC
2021/11/15〜2026/09/30確定確度 90%4.9 年前Happened as dated, per the source^[1]: "Biden signed the bill into law at a signing ceremony on November 15." Its authorisations ran FY2022-FY2026 and expired on 30 September 2026, per CRS R47573.
President Biden signed the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act into law, directing $1.2 trillion toward roads, bridges, rail, water systems and broadband nationwide.
$1.20
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健康2026/09/23@HealthDesk
J&J Signs a Drug-Pricing Deal With Trump and Joins TrumpRx
Johnson & Johnson World Headquarters, 1 Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08933, United StatesJohnson & Johnson…
開始 2026/01/08確定確度 86%258 日前J&J's release is datelined "New Brunswick, N.J. – JANUARY 8, 2026" and says the company "today announced a voluntary agreement with the Trump Administration"; coverage followed on 9 January.^[1]
Johnson & Johnson signed a voluntary most-favored-nation drug-pricing agreement with the Trump administration, selling medicines through TrumpRx.gov and to Medicaid at prices comparable to other developed countries in exchange for an exemption from pharmaceutical tariffs, and announced two new US plants in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
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地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
トランプ氏、アンドルーズ統合基地で習近平氏を出迎え
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
開始 2026/09/23 22:30予定確度 83%今日9月23日の大統領日程には「中華人民共和国主席との到着式典」として「6:00 PM ― 大統領がホワイトハウスを出発し、アンドルーズ統合基地へ向かう」と記載されている。APは習氏と彭麗媛氏が「水曜夜にアンドルーズ統合基地に到着する見込み」と伝えている。東部時間18:30は6 PM出発からの推定で、SCMP^[9]が先に伝えた「午後4時ごろ」に代わるもの。
トランプ大統領は2026年9月23日午後4時ごろ、アンドルーズ統合基地の駐機場で習近平国家主席と彭麗媛夫人を出迎える。米大統領が外国元首を空港で迎えることはほとんどない異例の待遇だ。9月23〜25日の国賓訪問の幕開けで、習氏のワシントン訪問は2015年以来となる。
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経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Longest Government Shutdown in US History Begins
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
2025/10/01〜2025/11/12確定確度 89%357 日前The shutdown began just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and ended on 12 November 2025 when the President signed the stopgap, a span of 43 days.^[1]
Federal funding lapsed just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and stayed lapsed for 43 days, the longest shutdown ever, over a fight about expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
0.62
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The President's Budget Request Falls Due
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesOffice of Management and Budget
開始 2027/02/01予定確度 83%131 日後The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 requires the President to submit the budget no later than the first Monday in February, which in 2027 is 1 February.^[1]
The statutory deadline for the President to send the fiscal 2028 budget to Congress is the first Monday in February 2027 - a deadline no president has met in over a decade.
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法律2026/09/23@LawDesk
ゲック判事、Sableの陸上パイプライン再稼働を阻む差し止め命令を維持
Santa Barbara County Courthouse, 1100, Anacapa Street, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara County, California, 93121, United StatesSable Offshore…
開始 2026/02/27確定確度 88%208 日前完了した措置として示されている。biologicaldiversity.org^[1]の2026年2月27日付の発表によると、「サンタバーバラの上級裁判所は本日、7月の仮差し止め命令を維持した」。
サンタバーバラの上級裁判所は、2015年にレフュジオ州立ビーチで破損したラスフローレス陸上パイプライン・システムについて、Sable Offshore Corp.による再稼働を禁じる7月の仮差し止め命令を維持し、再稼働の前には10裁判所日前の通知を求めた。判決はまた、トランプ政権が12月に同システムの管轄権を掌握し緊急特別許可を出したことは、裁判所の先の判断に影響しないと明確にした。
0.61
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/12/08 19:00予定確度 85%1.2 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.60

The White House^[1] statement dates the signing of H.R. 6500 to Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The act is in force from that day and its appropriations run to 11 December 2026, the date named in section 106(3) of the enrolled text.

開始: 2026年9月2日確度 90%出典：出典
終了: 2026年12月11日確度 90%出典：出典

Trump Signs the Stopgap That Funds the Government to December 11

H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, was signed on 2 September 2026, four weeks before the fiscal year ran out. Its appropriations run from 1 October to 11 December 2026, pushing the next shutdown fight past the midterm elections.

On Wednesday 2 September 2026 the President signed H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, a short-term continuing resolution funding federal agencies through 11 December 2026^[1]
The Senate had passed it 90-6 on 8 August and the House 370-48 on 1 September, nearly four weeks before the 30 September end of the fiscal year^[3]
The early signing deliberately moves the funding fight past the November midterm elections^[5]
It freezes most spending at fiscal 2026 levels and extends the National Flood Insurance Program, Food for Peace, surface transportation programmes and certain veterans' health and support programmes^[5]
To win Democratic votes it also bars the Office of Management and Budget from putting political appointees in charge of grant awards and blocks new funding, including transfers, to immigration enforcement agencies^[5]
Section 106(3) of the enacted text makes every appropriation in it available only until 11 December 2026, and the surface-transportation division strikes "October 1, 2026" for "December 12, 2026" - so 11 December is the last day it covers^[2]

@EconDesk

参考資料 5確度 90%

最初の項目は常にピンの出典です。全体の確度は、各資料が上記の開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均です。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに、重みは半分になります。

[1]90%
whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/09/congressional-bill-h-r-6500-signed-into-law
whitehouse.gov· 投稿 2026年9月21日· 開始 2026年9月2日 ✓· 終了 2026年12月11日 ✓· スコアの 20%
The White House statement dates the signing of H.R. 6500 to Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The act is in force from that day and its appropriations run to 11 December 2026, the date named in section 106(3) of the enrolled text.
[2]95%
H.R. 6500 (ENR), Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 - enrolled text (GovInfo)
govinfo.gov· 追加 2026年9月21日· スコアの 20%
The enacted text itself: section 106(3) makes the appropriations available only until 11 December 2026, and the Surface Transportation Extension Act division strikes '1 October 2026' for '12 December 2026'.^[1]
[3]90%
Appropriations Watch: FY 2027 (CRFB)
crfb.org· 追加 2026年9月21日· スコアの 20%
Running tally of the FY2027 bills, with the 90-6 Senate vote on 8 August, the 370-48 House vote on 1 September and the 2 September signing.^[1]
[4]90%
H.R. 6500: Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 (GovTrack)
govtrack.us· 追加 2026年9月21日· スコアの 20%
Bill record: sponsor, introduction on 9 December 2025 and enacted status after the President's signature.^[1]
[5]85%
Congress punts government funding deadline to Dec. 11 (The Center Square)
thecentersquare.com· 公開 2026年9月1日· スコアの 19%
Reports what the stopgap carries - flood insurance, Food for Peace, highways, veterans programmes - and the immigration-funding and OMB grant restrictions that won Democratic votes.^[1]

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経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
Government Funding Runs Out Again on December 11
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
開始 2026/12/11予定確度 86%79 日後H.R. 6500 funds federal agencies through 11 December 2026, so the continuing resolution expires at the end of that day.^[1]
The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.
0.75
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
2026/10/01〜2027/09/30予定確度 84%8 日後The US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
0.69
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
Half the Government Shuts Down for Four Days
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
2026/01/31〜2026/02/03確定確度 87%235 日前The funding lapse ran from 31 January 2026, when the continuing resolution expired, to 3 February 2026, when the House passed the package 217-214 and the President signed it.^[1]
A stopgap covering six of the twelve appropriations bills expired on 31 January 2026, closing roughly half of federal agencies until the House passed a funding package 217-214 on 3 February.
0.67
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
2027/10/01〜2028/09/30予定確度 83%来年The federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.^[1]
The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.
0.65
エネルギー2026/09/22@EnergyDesk
Ford Signs the Law That Creates the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The White HouseWhite House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20500, United States
開始 1975/12/22確定確度 92%50.8 年前The American Presidency Project dates Ford's signing statement to 22 December 1975, and the Act itself is P.L. 94-163, enacted that day.^[1]
Two years after the Arab oil embargo, the Energy Policy and Conservation Act set up a federal emergency oil stockpile and gave the President the power to order it sold when supply is severely interrupted. Ford called the bill imperfect but signed it anyway, to end "the long debate over national energy policy".
0.64
法律2026/09/15@BuildDesk
Biden Signs the $1.2 Trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
The White House, Washington, DC
2021/11/15〜2026/09/30確定確度 90%4.9 年前Happened as dated, per the source^[1]: "Biden signed the bill into law at a signing ceremony on November 15." Its authorisations ran FY2022-FY2026 and expired on 30 September 2026, per CRS R47573.
President Biden signed the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act into law, directing $1.2 trillion toward roads, bridges, rail, water systems and broadband nationwide.
$1.20
0.63
健康2026/09/23@HealthDesk
J&J Signs a Drug-Pricing Deal With Trump and Joins TrumpRx
Johnson & Johnson World Headquarters, 1 Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08933, United StatesJohnson & Johnson…
開始 2026/01/08確定確度 86%258 日前J&J's release is datelined "New Brunswick, N.J. – JANUARY 8, 2026" and says the company "today announced a voluntary agreement with the Trump Administration"; coverage followed on 9 January.^[1]
Johnson & Johnson signed a voluntary most-favored-nation drug-pricing agreement with the Trump administration, selling medicines through TrumpRx.gov and to Medicaid at prices comparable to other developed countries in exchange for an exemption from pharmaceutical tariffs, and announced two new US plants in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
0.62
地政学2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
トランプ氏、アンドルーズ統合基地で習近平氏を出迎え
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
開始 2026/09/23 22:30予定確度 83%今日9月23日の大統領日程には「中華人民共和国主席との到着式典」として「6:00 PM ― 大統領がホワイトハウスを出発し、アンドルーズ統合基地へ向かう」と記載されている。APは習氏と彭麗媛氏が「水曜夜にアンドルーズ統合基地に到着する見込み」と伝えている。東部時間18:30は6 PM出発からの推定で、SCMP^[9]が先に伝えた「午後4時ごろ」に代わるもの。
トランプ大統領は2026年9月23日午後4時ごろ、アンドルーズ統合基地の駐機場で習近平国家主席と彭麗媛夫人を出迎える。米大統領が外国元首を空港で迎えることはほとんどない異例の待遇だ。9月23〜25日の国賓訪問の幕開けで、習氏のワシントン訪問は2015年以来となる。
0.62
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Longest Government Shutdown in US History Begins
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress
2025/10/01〜2025/11/12確定確度 89%357 日前The shutdown began just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and ended on 12 November 2025 when the President signed the stopgap, a span of 43 days.^[1]
Federal funding lapsed just after midnight on 1 October 2025 and stayed lapsed for 43 days, the longest shutdown ever, over a fight about expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
0.62
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The President's Budget Request Falls Due
United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesOffice of Management and Budget
開始 2027/02/01予定確度 83%131 日後The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 requires the President to submit the budget no later than the first Monday in February, which in 2027 is 1 February.^[1]
The statutory deadline for the President to send the fiscal 2028 budget to Congress is the first Monday in February 2027 - a deadline no president has met in over a decade.
0.61
法律2026/09/23@LawDesk
ゲック判事、Sableの陸上パイプライン再稼働を阻む差し止め命令を維持
Santa Barbara County Courthouse, 1100, Anacapa Street, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara County, California, 93121, United StatesSable Offshore…
開始 2026/02/27確定確度 88%208 日前完了した措置として示されている。biologicaldiversity.org^[1]の2026年2月27日付の発表によると、「サンタバーバラの上級裁判所は本日、7月の仮差し止め命令を維持した」。
サンタバーバラの上級裁判所は、2015年にレフュジオ州立ビーチで破損したラスフローレス陸上パイプライン・システムについて、Sable Offshore Corp.による再稼働を禁じる7月の仮差し止め命令を維持し、再稼働の前には10裁判所日前の通知を求めた。判決はまた、トランプ政権が12月に同システムの管轄権を掌握し緊急特別許可を出したことは、裁判所の先の判断に影響しないと明確にした。
0.61
経済2026/09/21@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
開始 2027/12/08 19:00予定確度 85%1.2 年後The Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.60

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