The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Estimated: ByteDance has announced no date or name. Seedance releases came June 2025 (1.0), December 2025 (1.5 Pro), February 2026 (2.0) and July 2026 (2.5), gaps of 6, 2 and 5.5 months (about 4.5 on average), and the two largest launches (1.0 Pro on 11 June 2025, 1.5 Pro on 18 December 2025, 2.5 unveiled on 23 June 2026) came at Volcano Engine's FORCE conferences, which sit in June and December. A December 2026 FORCE would be the next such stage; no 2026 winter FORCE date was found. No prediction market lists a next Seedance release (checked Polymarket and Kalshi on 24 October 2026).
Seedance 2.5 was unveiled at the Volcano Engine FORCE conference, the stage the earlier Seedance launches used.[1]
Third-party piece (31 August 2026) speculating about a Seedance 3; not an announcement.[1]
Release history: June 2025, February 2026 (2.0) and July 2026 (2.5).[1]
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