The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Stated as firm, per the mayor's statement dated 23 October 2025: "the president told me clearly that he was calling off any plans for a federal deployment in San Francisco. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem reaffirmed that direction in our conversation this morning."
The Standard on the Wednesday-night call, Trump's Truth Social post confirming the surge is on hold, and the Coast Guard base in the East Bay set up as a place of operations.[1]
CalMatters quotes Trump's post naming Huang and Benioff and "we will not surge San Francisco on Saturday", the ~100 agents sent to the East Bay, the Coast Guard Island protest and Newsom's readiness to sue.
KQED: federal officials arrived at Alameda's Coast Guard Island Thursday morning as Lurie announced the call-off of the surge planned for Saturday.
ABC7 on Lurie's account of the call and the pullback of federal agents.[1]
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