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- Sep 30, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Google Announces Gemini 4 Argon
- Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September 2026 as its new frontier model for deep reasoning across long-horizon workflows[1]
- It is with trusted testers and cyber defenders through the Fairwind Program and rolls out soon to Google AI Ultra subscribers and paid API customers, with no date given[1]
- Introductory pricing is $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output, rising to $4 and $20; cached input gets a 95% discount[1]
- Google scored 77.9% on DeepSWE v1.1 against 74.2% for Claude Opus 5.5 and 74.1% for GPT-6 Astra[1]
Notable features
References 582% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]95%Google announces Gemini 4 Argon as its new frontier model9to5google.com· Published Sep 30, 2026· Starts Sep 30, 2026 ✓· 20% of score
Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September 2026 (9to5Google, 1:00 PM PT); it is with trusted testers and cyber defenders now and 'rolling out soon' to AI Ultra and paid API customers, so the wider release date is unstated. This replaces the earlier 14 October estimate.
- [2]80%Polymarket: Gemini 4.0 released by...?polymarket.com· Added Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
On 28 September the market, with about $622,000 traded, prices a public Gemini 4.0 release at 2% by 30 September, 45% by 15 October, 78.5% by 31 October and 89.5% by 30 November.[1]
- [3]75%Polymarket: When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?polymarket.com· Added Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
The weekly version of the next-Gemini-Pro question (about $111,000 traded) puts the most weight on 12-18 October at 31.5%, with 26 October-1 November at 30.5% and no release by 1 November at 20%.[1]
- [4]85%Gemini 4 is in post-training and could ship before the end of 2026thenextweb.com· Published Sep 28, 2026· 20% of score
The Next Web says Kavukcuoglu, who took over running Google DeepMind in August, spoke at The Information's AI Agenda Live and gave no release date, but wants Gemini 4 out "much earlier" than the end of the year; it is in post-training and being tried in Antigravity, while Anthropic and OpenAI shipped Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Sol and Luna on 22 September.
- [5]75%DeepMind says Gemini 4 is coming much earlier than expecteddataconomy.com· Published Sep 25, 2026· 20% of score
Dataconomy reports the remarks were made at the summit on Wednesday, that Google plans to release Gemini 4 in stages starting with an early version, and that Pichai had promised a Gemini 3.5 Pro update for June at I/O in May that never shipped.
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