ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins83% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 83%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Estimated: a "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. The largest step between consecutive strikes (taking the highest quote seen so far where a later strike is quoted lower) is Jan 1, 2028 (15%) to Jul 1, 2028 (38%), so the window opens on Jan 1, 2028. Quotes are bid/ask midpoints read on 27 October 2026. Estimated contract-count-times-last-price volume across active strikes is about US$1,819 (3,237 contracts); this is not reported cash turnover.[1] Kalshi
On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Perplexity IPO confirmation at 15% before Jan 1, 2028, rising to 58% before Jan 1, 2029. The largest step in the ladder runs from Jan 1, 2028 to Jul 1, 2028 (15% to 38%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.
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