ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Estimated: a "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. The largest step between consecutive strikes (taking the highest quote seen so far where a later strike is quoted lower) is Dec 1, 2027 (20%) to Jan 1, 2028 (24%), so the window opens on Dec 1, 2027. Quotes are bid/ask midpoints read on 27 October 2026; some strikes are quoted out of order, so the ladder is not strictly rising. Estimated contract-count-times-last-price volume across active strikes is about US$1,438 (15,903 contracts); this is not reported cash turnover.[1] Kalshi
On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Waymo IPO confirmation at 0.5% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 24% before Jan 1, 2028. The largest step in the ladder runs from Dec 1, 2027 to Jan 1, 2028 (20% to 24%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.
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